Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-11-08?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$346.28

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 100¢

+43% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,529

Combined PnL+$233.11

No4 traders

Total Value$379.04

Total Shares1,899

Combined PnL-$579.39

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE pelik	Yesavg 99.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0.62	99% 11217-137 (11354)
VE Venusian	Yesavg 52.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$31.8	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 56.9¢	$435.99	$700.23	+$264.24	50% 32573-32704 (65277)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Noavg 47¢	$381.13	$163.89	-$15.24	53% 2990-2610 (5600)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 41.8¢	$679.92	$158.72	-$521.2	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 47¢	$402.68	$53.68	-$42.92	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 99¢	$5.15	$5.2	+$0.05	46% 30579-35678 (66257)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$2.78	$2.75	-$0.03	52% 9515-8627 (18142)

pelik

Yes

Invested

$1,230.47

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0.62

Record

99%

11217-137 (11354)

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$1,209.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$31.8

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$435.99

Value

$700.23

PnL

+$264.24

Record

50%

32573-32704 (65277)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Invested

$381.13

Value

$163.89

PnL

-$15.24

Record

53%

2990-2610 (5600)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$679.92

Value

$158.72

PnL

-$521.2

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$402.68

Value

$53.68

PnL

-$42.92

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$0.05

Record

46%

30579-35678 (66257)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$2.78

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.