Will Riga FC win on 2026-11-08?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 8

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$716.22

Smart Money Entry

91.9¢ → 98.6¢

+7% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,874

Combined PnL+$488.61

No12 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,846

Combined PnL+$227.61

Yes — 8%No — 92%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$989.4	$1.5K	+$488.61	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 96.7¢	$735.78	$749.84	+$14.06	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 91.6¢	$603.47	$646.27	+$42.8	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 90.4¢	$576.58	$628.81	+$52.23	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
dips.	Noavg 95.5¢	$784.83	$427.44	-$357.39	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 96.9¢	$599.54	$201.22	-$1.78	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 91.5¢	$574.26	$182.89	-$1.06	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
DE 0xdea2...e981	Noavg 69.1¢	$1.4K	$153.17	+$472.91	64% 18-10 (28)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 92.9¢	$315.38	$111.76	+$6.38	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 92.1¢	$221.1	$69.32	-$0.69	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 91.6¢	$329.21	$49.43	-$0.27	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$31.3	$31.3	+$0	32% 7674-16005 (23679)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 95.7¢	$803.7	$15.93	+$0.44	44% 2445-3051 (5496)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$989.4

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$488.61

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$735.78

Value

$749.84

PnL

+$14.06

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$603.47

Value

$646.27

PnL

+$42.8

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$576.58

Value

$628.81

PnL

+$52.23

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

dips.

Invested

$784.83

Value

$427.44

PnL

-$357.39

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$599.54

Value

$201.22

PnL

-$1.78

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$574.26

Value

$182.89

PnL

-$1.06

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

0xdea2...e981

Invested

$1,389.66

Value

$153.17

PnL

+$472.91

Record

64%

18-10 (28)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$315.38

Value

$111.76

PnL

+$6.38

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$221.1

Value

$69.32

PnL

-$0.69

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$329.21

Value

$49.43

PnL

-$0.27

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

korda77<$100

Invested

$31.3

Value

$31.3

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

7674-16005 (23679)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$803.7

Value

$15.93

PnL

+$0.44

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.