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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on November 7?

Resolved No. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0

Combined PnL

-$2.74

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$2.74

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	-$1.83	32% 21967-45855 (67822)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$0.91	—	-$0.91	47% 47657-54243 (101900)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	—	—	+$0	30% 35523-84044 (119567)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	—	—	+$0	43% 18729-24498 (43227)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	55% 25593-21267 (46860)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	—	—	+$0	46% 6200-7414 (13614)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	37% 16949-29332 (46281)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	49% 24130-24681 (48811)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	—	—	+$0	22% 3495-12142 (15637)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	—	—	+$0	14% 9536-61063 (70599)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$1.83

Record

32%

21967-45855 (67822)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$0.91

Value

—

PnL

-$0.91

Record

47%

47657-54243 (101900)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

35523-84044 (119567)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18729-24498 (43227)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

25593-21267 (46860)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6200-7414 (13614)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

16949-29332 (46281)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

24130-24681 (48811)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

22%

3495-12142 (15637)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

14%

9536-61063 (70599)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0623e6d1...8fd4cd

Slug

lowest-temperature-in-hong-kong-on-november-7-2026-20c

Traders in this Market

xtxpleasecallme

Yes — $0

qwen300.fund

Yes — $0

balthazar

Yes — $0

Lucerys

Yes — $0

graynotebook19

Yes — $0

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Yes — $0

god83743894

Yes — $0

mildwindow27

Yes — $0

luciebot

Yes — $0

LornaPredicts

Yes — $0

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