Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on November 9?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 97¢ · $169 held · ended Nov 9

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$168.78

Combined PnL

$9.13

Smart Money Entry

87.4¢ → 97.1¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$167.48

Total Shares176

Combined PnL+$8.6

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.3

Total Shares8

Combined PnL+$0.53

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 81.3¢	$43.15	$49.55	+$3.69	53% 5094-4462 (9556)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$33.89	$35.63	+$1.73	50% 66281-66811 (133092)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 83.7¢	$27.8	$31.02	+$1.23	25% 2377-7065 (9442)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$28.84	$30.08	+$1.25	69% 16770-7377 (24147)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$14.47	$14.94	+$0.47	23% 8575-28998 (37573)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$6.03	$6.26	+$0.23	43% 5588-7271 (12859)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.08	$1.3	+$0.53	22% 3495-12141 (15636)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$43.15

Value

$49.55

PnL

+$3.69

Record

53%

5094-4462 (9556)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$33.89

Value

$35.63

PnL

+$1.73

Record

50%

66281-66811 (133092)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$27.8

Value

$31.02

PnL

+$1.23

Record

25%

2377-7065 (9442)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$28.84

Value

$30.08

PnL

+$1.25

Record

69%

16770-7377 (24147)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$14.47

Value

$14.94

PnL

+$0.47

Record

23%

8575-28998 (37573)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.03

Value

$6.26

PnL

+$0.23

Record

43%

5588-7271 (12859)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$0.53

Record

22%

3495-12141 (15636)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.