Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bilibili Gaming, while the market favors Top Esports (100%). 46 of 83 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner

46 of 83 top Polymarket traders hold Bilibili Gaming (55%) · Bilibili Gaming at 0.1¢ · $1.3M held · ends Oct 30

Top Esports>99¢Bilibili Gaming<1¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bilibili Gaming

Consensus Traders

Bilibili Gaming 55%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3M

Combined PnL

$-61.7K

Smart Money Entry

76.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 46 traders

Research grade

AvoidBilibili Gaming at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

46 of 83 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Top Esports 100%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed46 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Top Esports100%

Bilibili Gaming0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bilibili Gaming46 traders

Total Value$876.3K

Total Shares1,262,452

Combined PnL$-108.9K

Top Esports37 traders

Total Value$322.4K

Total Shares605,851

Combined PnL+$47.1K

Bilibili Gaming — 55%Top Esports — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Bilibili Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Top Esports) and the top 1000 (11 on Bilibili Gaming) disagree here.

whaleTop Esports 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpBilibili Gaming 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBilibili Gaming 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedTop Esports 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Bilibili Gaming 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO MooseborzoiiiCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 78.9¢	$470.1K	$420.2K	$-49.9K	46% 33-39 (72)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 75¢	$161.2K	$151.7K	$-9.6K	50% 7300-7432 (14732)
SH Sharky6999	Top Esportsavg 99.9¢	$149.8K	$149.9K	+$75	98% 6846-160 (7006)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 67¢	$95.6K	$98.7K	+$3.1K	53% 2345-2069 (4414)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 78¢	$44.5K	$40.2K	$-4.3K	53% 908-794 (1702)
PN pnhctCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 70.4¢	$39.2K	$37.6K	$-1.6K	54% 491-418 (909)
YO yong32ARB<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 77.2¢	$34.6K	$35.1K	+$589.97	69% 41-18 (59)
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 77.2¢	$26.6K	$23.6K	$-3.0K
└ Top Esports leg	Top Esportsavg 21.7¢	$7.9K	$11.5K	+$3.6K
ZY Zywoo123	Top Esportsavg 23¢	$22.5K	$28.8K	+$6.3K	52% 940-873 (1813)
JA Ja888	Top Esportsavg 71.2¢	$24.4K	$25.6K	+$1.4K	69% 45-20 (65)
FK fkAL	Top Esportsavg 20.3¢	$8.7K	$25.0K	+$7.6K	63% 2022-1195 (3217)
JustADonkCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 83.5¢	$23.7K	$20.0K	$-3.7K	55% 886-728 (1614)
LI LinkE5	Top Esportsavg 24¢	$12.8K	$15.7K	+$2.9K	47% 700-777 (1477)
DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 76.2¢	$14.3K	$14.6K	+$295.49	53% 2052-1818 (3870)
└ Top Esports leg	Top Esportsavg 35.6¢	$6.6K	$9.9K	+$3.3K
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 76.2¢	$7.8K	$4.7K	$-3.0K
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 65.4¢	$11.6K	$14.1K	+$2.5K	53% 3931-3424 (7355)
└ Top Esports leg	Top Esportsavg 26.4¢	$4.3K	$9.6K	+$5.3K
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 65.4¢	$7.3K	$4.5K	$-2.8K
zb8CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 76.5¢	$36.0K	$12.8K	-$667.84	54% 628-542 (1170)
TH THEHIGHLIFE	Top Esportsavg 23¢	$9.2K	$11.8K	+$2.6K	54% 2473-2128 (4601)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 67.4¢	$8.8K	$9.2K	+$351.53	52% 13683-12498 (26181)
BL bluemolCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 78.4¢	$10.0K	$9.0K	$-1.0K	75% 567-189 (756)
OM omnibus-076daa	Top Esportsavg 22.2¢	$3.6K	$8.7K	+$5.1K	49% 18867-19279 (38146)
0X 0x5b100dBef7Ec223ACF02717598789Ef90b679659-1770806179314CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 75.9¢	$8.3K	$7.5K	-$809.22	58% 1750-1275 (3025)
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 62.9¢	$11.6K	$7.5K	$-4.1K	49% 1154-1201 (2355)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Top Esportsavg 21¢	$5.3K	$7.4K	+$2.1K	54% 1193-1008 (2201)
GO Gooooooollllllllll	Top Esportsavg 21¢	$5.3K	$7.4K	+$2.1K	50% 1228-1223 (2451)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 63¢	$5.1K	$7.3K	+$2.3K	55% 7001-5619 (12620)
└ Top Esports leg	Top Esportsavg 10.2¢	$797.81	$4.2K	+$3.4K
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 63¢	$4.3K	$3.1K	$-1.1K
minjiARB<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 76.2¢	$7.7K	$6.8K	-$863.79	52% 1788-1641 (3429)
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 76.2¢	$4.9K	$3.9K	-$953.28
└ Top Esports leg	Top Esportsavg 38.3¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$89.49

MooseborzoiiiCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$470,109.32

Value

$420.2K

PnL

$-49.9K

Record

46%

33-39 (72)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$161,243.04

Value

$151.7K

PnL

$-9.6K

Record

50%

7300-7432 (14732)

Sharky6999

Top Esports

Invested

$149,850

Value

$149.9K

PnL

+$75

Record

98%

6846-160 (7006)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$95,613.47

Value

$98.7K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

53%

2345-2069 (4414)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$44,488.4

Value

$40.2K

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

53%

908-794 (1702)

pnhctCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$39,157.62

Value

$37.6K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

54%

491-418 (909)

yong32ARB<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$34,556.71

Value

$35.1K

PnL

+$589.97

Record

69%

41-18 (59)

Both legs:

Bilibili Gaming$26,640.3577.2¢$-3.0K

Top Esports$7,916.3621.7¢+$3.6K

Zywoo123

Top Esports

Invested

$22,538.54

Value

$28.8K

PnL

+$6.3K

Record

52%

940-873 (1813)

Ja888

Top Esports

Invested

$24,423.18

Value

$25.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

69%

45-20 (65)

fkAL

Top Esports

Invested

$8,736.06

Value

$25.0K

PnL

+$7.6K

Record

63%

2022-1195 (3217)

JustADonkCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$23,707.65

Value

$20.0K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

55%

886-728 (1614)

LinkE5

Top Esports

Invested

$12,799.92

Value

$15.7K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

47%

700-777 (1477)

DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$14,345.58

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$295.49

Record

53%

2052-1818 (3870)

Both legs:

Top Esports$6,578.2135.6¢+$3.3K

Bilibili Gaming$7,767.3876.2¢$-3.0K

takeormakeARB<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$11,592.92

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

53%

3931-3424 (7355)

Both legs:

Top Esports$4,258.0126.4¢+$5.3K

Bilibili Gaming$7,334.9165.4¢$-2.8K

zb8CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$35,956.27

Value

$12.8K

PnL

-$667.84

Record

54%

628-542 (1170)

THEHIGHLIFE

Top Esports

Invested

$9,202.1

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

54%

2473-2128 (4601)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$8,815.21

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$351.53

Record

52%

13683-12498 (26181)

bluemolCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$10,000

Value

$9.0K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

75%

567-189 (756)

omnibus-076daa

Top Esports

Invested

$3,603.67

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

49%

18867-19279 (38146)

0x5b100dBef7Ec223ACF02717598789Ef90b679659-1770806179314CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$8,283.34

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$809.22

Record

58%

1750-1275 (3025)

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$11,582.37

Value

$7.5K

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

49%

1154-1201 (2355)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Top Esports

Invested

$5,250

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

54%

1193-1008 (2201)

Gooooooollllllllll

Top Esports

Invested

$5,250

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

50%

1228-1223 (2451)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$5,052.69

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

55%

7001-5619 (12620)

Both legs:

Top Esports$797.8110.2¢+$3.4K

Bilibili Gaming$4,254.8763¢$-1.1K

minjiARB<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$7,727.26

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$863.79

Record

52%

1788-1641 (3429)

Both legs:

Bilibili Gaming$4,945.3376.2¢-$953.28

Top Esports$2,781.9338.3¢+$89.49

Research grade

AvoidBilibili Gaming at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

46 of 83 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Top Esports 100%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed46 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Bilibili Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Top Esports) and the top 1000 (11 on Bilibili Gaming) disagree here.

whaleTop Esports 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpBilibili Gaming 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBilibili Gaming 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedTop Esports 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Bilibili Gaming 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bilibili Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.