LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner

45 of 69 top Polymarket traders hold Bilibili Gaming (65%) · Bilibili Gaming at 100¢ · $765K held · ends Oct 30

Top Esports<1¢Bilibili Gaming>99¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bilibili Gaming

Consensus Traders

Bilibili Gaming 65%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$764.7K

Combined PnL

$37.0K

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 100¢

+30% since entry · 45 traders

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

45 of 69 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Top Esports0%

Bilibili Gaming100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bilibili Gaming45 traders

Total Value$721.9K

Total Shares751,536

Combined PnL+$119.8K

Top Esports24 traders

Total Value$19.5K

Total Shares391,629

Combined PnL$-82.7K

Bilibili Gaming — 65%Top Esports — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

51 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

68% of non-arb traders are on Bilibili Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBilibili Gaming 71% · 14

Aligned

sharpBilibili Gaming 86% · 14

Aligned

sniperBilibili Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBilibili Gaming 60% · 53

Aligned

Hand-pickedBilibili Gaming 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Bilibili Gaming 68% · 74

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Mooseborzoiii	Bilibili Gamingavg 71.3¢	$174.8K	$232.8K	+$58.0K	46% 33-39 (72)
c4acap	Bilibili Gamingavg 99.9¢	$75.0K	$71.3K	$-3.7K	98% 2402-40 (2442)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008	Bilibili Gamingavg 70.9¢	$45.8K	$61.3K	+$15.5K	50% 7300-7432 (14732)
DonaldinhoTrumpito	Bilibili Gamingavg 69.5¢	$36.8K	$50.2K	+$13.5K	67% 501-250 (751)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Bilibili Gamingavg 79.1¢	$38.3K	$38.8K	+$520.61	53% 2345-2069 (4414)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Bilibili Gamingavg 69.9¢	$25.7K	$34.9K	+$9.2K	54% 1193-1008 (2201)
YO yong32	Bilibili Gamingavg 73.3¢	$31.0K	$32.2K	+$1.2K	69% 41-18 (59)
LA landighertz	Bilibili Gamingavg 99.9¢	$30.0K	$30.0K	+$15	99% 1136-4 (1140)
FK fkALARB<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 71¢	$23.4K	$21.5K	$-1.9K	63% 2022-1195 (3217)
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 71¢	$12.3K	$16.4K	+$4.2K
└ Top Esports leg	Top Esportsavg 11¢	$11.1K	$5.0K	$-6.1K
PN pnhct	Bilibili Gamingavg 81.1¢	$15.1K	$15.4K	+$284.46	54% 491-418 (909)
US Username2133	Bilibili Gamingavg 81.2¢	$21.3K	$15.2K	+$3.6K	58% 87-64 (151)
CA Catch8877	Bilibili Gamingavg 69¢	$8.3K	$11.4K	+$3.1K	51% 149-142 (291)
DamwonChampions2026	Bilibili Gamingavg 73.4¢	$8.6K	$10.3K	+$1.7K	53% 2052-1818 (3870)
0X 0x5b100dBef7Ec223ACF02717598789Ef90b679659-1770806179314	Bilibili Gamingavg 71¢	$7.1K	$10.0K	+$2.9K	58% 1750-1275 (3025)
JA Ja888	Bilibili Gamingavg 90.6¢	$10.1K	$9.6K	-$455.64	69% 45-20 (65)
enpirugbrpti	Bilibili Gamingavg 69¢	$6.7K	$9.2K	+$2.8K	54% 3497-2955 (6452)
TA takeormake	Bilibili Gamingavg 84.9¢	$7.8K	$8.8K	+$936.93	53% 3931-3424 (7355)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Top Esportsavg 29.6¢	$42.6K	$8.5K	$-34.1K	53% 908-794 (1702)
KateBollinger	Bilibili Gamingavg 69.4¢	$5.8K	$8.2K	+$2.4K	68% 1735-801 (2536)
minji	Bilibili Gamingavg 74.8¢	$5.4K	$6.6K	+$1.3K	52% 1788-1641 (3429)
0xheavy888	Bilibili Gamingavg 73.2¢	$4.8K	$6.2K	+$1.5K	55% 7001-5619 (12620)
SD sdfqq1	Bilibili Gamingavg 93¢	$9.9K	$6.0K	$-3.9K	60% 266-180 (446)
AS asuka7	Bilibili Gamingavg 72.1¢	$4.4K	$5.8K	+$1.4K	58% 941-675 (1616)
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69	Bilibili Gamingavg 69¢	$3.6K	$5.0K	+$1.4K	70% 33-14 (47)
25 254321758	Bilibili Gamingavg 97.4¢	$13.5K	$4.7K	-$70.37	69% 439-199 (638)

Mooseborzoiii

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$174,789.52

Value

$232.8K

PnL

+$58.0K

Record

46%

33-39 (72)

c4acap

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$74,964.96

Value

$71.3K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

98%

2402-40 (2442)

jakepaulthegoat2008

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$45,791.89

Value

$61.3K

PnL

+$15.5K

Record

50%

7300-7432 (14732)

DonaldinhoTrumpito

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$36,773.88

Value

$50.2K

PnL

+$13.5K

Record

67%

501-250 (751)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$38,285.79

Value

$38.8K

PnL

+$520.61

Record

53%

2345-2069 (4414)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$25,659.99

Value

$34.9K

PnL

+$9.2K

Record

54%

1193-1008 (2201)

yong32

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$31,016.51

Value

$32.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

69%

41-18 (59)

landighertz

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$29,970

Value

$30.0K

PnL

+$15

Record

99%

1136-4 (1140)

fkALARB<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$23,362.68

Value

$21.5K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

63%

2022-1195 (3217)

Both legs:

Bilibili Gaming$12,286.5971¢+$4.2K

Top Esports$11,076.0911¢$-6.1K

pnhct

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$15,112.73

Value

$15.4K

PnL

+$284.46

Record

54%

491-418 (909)

Username2133

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$21,328.76

Value

$15.2K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

58%

87-64 (151)

Catch8877

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$8,279.99

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

51%

149-142 (291)

DamwonChampions2026

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$8,613.25

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

53%

2052-1818 (3870)

0x5b100dBef7Ec223ACF02717598789Ef90b679659-1770806179314

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$7,099.99

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

58%

1750-1275 (3025)

Ja888

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$10,146.55

Value

$9.6K

PnL

-$455.64

Record

69%

45-20 (65)

enpirugbrpti

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$6,709.56

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

54%

3497-2955 (6452)

takeormake

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$7,838.21

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$936.93

Record

53%

3931-3424 (7355)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Top Esports

Invested

$42,626.03

Value

$8.5K

PnL

$-34.1K

Record

53%

908-794 (1702)

KateBollinger

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$5,828.58

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

68%

1735-801 (2536)

minji

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$5,368.42

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

52%

1788-1641 (3429)

0xheavy888

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$4,794.71

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

55%

7001-5619 (12620)

sdfqq1

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$9,872.34

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-3.9K

Record

60%

266-180 (446)

asuka7

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$4,380.09

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

58%

941-675 (1616)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$3,607.66

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

70%

33-14 (47)

254321758

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$13,498.19

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$70.37

Record

69%

439-199 (638)

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

45 of 69 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

51 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

68% of non-arb traders are on Bilibili Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBilibili Gaming 71% · 14

Aligned

sharpBilibili Gaming 86% · 14

Aligned

sniperBilibili Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBilibili Gaming 60% · 53

Aligned

Hand-pickedBilibili Gaming 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Bilibili Gaming 68% · 74

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bilibili Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.