Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (83%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Games Total: O/U 3.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 17¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
$1.1K
-$86.12
34.3¢ → 17¢
-50% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 83%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alpheclabs2CTR | Overavg 34.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$90.86 | 49% 65-68 (133) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Overavg 32.9¢ | $42.9 | $48.83 | +$5.93 | 22% 77-281 (358) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Underavg 66¢ | $46.4 | $43.59 | -$2.81 | 9% 35-367 (402) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $14.75 | $16.98 | +$2.23 | 52% 231-215 (446) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 34.2¢ | $11.7 | $11.18 | -$0.52 | 22% 133-482 (615) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $3.9 | $3.8 | -$0.1 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
alpheclabs2CTRInvested
$1,106.59
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$90.86
Record
49%
65-68 (133)
Invested
$42.9
Value
$48.83
PnL
+$5.93
Record
22%
77-281 (358)
Invested
$46.4
Value
$43.59
PnL
-$2.81
Record
9%
35-367 (402)
Invested
$14.75
Value
$16.98
PnL
+$2.23
Record
52%
231-215 (446)
Invested
$11.7
Value
$11.18
PnL
-$0.52
Record
22%
133-482 (615)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.8
PnL
-$0.1
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.