Game Handicap: SGW (-2.5) vs Gromp Esports (+2.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Saigon Warriors (40%) · Saigon Warriors at 64¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Saigon Warriors
5
Saigon Warriors 40%
$1.4K
$87.32
58.2¢ → 63.5¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSaigon Warriors at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO ColdBlooded | Saigon Warriorsavg 58¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$95.87 | — 4-1 (5) |
BI biying88888CTR<$100 | Gromp Esportsavg 41.9¢ | $61.69 | $55.17 | -$6.52 | 27% 62-168 (230) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Saigon Warriorsavg 66¢ | $32.13 | $30.43 | -$1.7 | 9% 34-365 (399) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Gromp Esportsavg 39.3¢ | $14.75 | $14.38 | -$0.38 | 21% 127-474 (601) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Gromp Esportsavg 37.3¢ | $14.05 | $14.1 | +$0.06 | 40% 2998-4409 (7407) |
Invested
$1,239.23
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$95.87
Record
—
4-1 (5)
Invested
$61.69
Value
$55.17
PnL
-$6.52
Record
27%
62-168 (230)
Invested
$32.13
Value
$30.43
PnL
-$1.7
Record
9%
34-365 (399)
Invested
$14.75
Value
$14.38
PnL
-$0.38
Record
21%
127-474 (601)
Invested
$14.05
Value
$14.1
PnL
+$0.06
Record
40%
2998-4409 (7407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.