Games Total: O/U 3.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 53¢ · $454 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
$453.53
$21.51
46¢ → 53¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL bloodmaster | Underavg 45.3¢ | $206.91 | $246.54 | +$39.63 | 90% 18-2 (20) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $87.79 | $98.82 | +$11.03 | 25% 137-419 (556) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 49.8¢ | $381.33 | $65.31 | -$27.72 | 52% 597-541 (1138) |
BI biying99999CTR<$100 | Overavg 51.5¢ | $28.84 | $25.76 | -$3.08 | 29% 58-145 (203) |
WH whatyouknowboutlove<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $5.2 | $7.02 | +$1.82 | 0% 0-87 (87) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $5 | $5.47 | +$0.48 | 41% 3187-4522 (7709) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 52.5¢ | $5.25 | $4.6 | -$0.65 | 35% 376-688 (1064) |
Invested
$206.91
Value
$246.54
PnL
+$39.63
Record
90%
18-2 (20)
Invested
$87.79
Value
$98.82
PnL
+$11.03
Record
25%
137-419 (556)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$381.33
Value
$65.31
PnL
-$27.72
Record
52%
597-541 (1138)
Invested
$28.84
Value
$25.76
PnL
-$3.08
Record
29%
58-145 (203)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$7.02
PnL
+$1.82
Record
0%
0-87 (87)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.47
PnL
+$0.48
Record
41%
3187-4522 (7709)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$4.6
PnL
-$0.65
Record
35%
376-688 (1064)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.