LoL: Nothin'Here vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Saigon Warriors (40%) · Saigon Warriors at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Saigon Warriors
5
Saigon Warriors 40%
$1.3K
$23.41
76.5¢ → 78¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSaigon Warriors at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Saigon Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL bloodmaster | Saigon Warriorsavg 76.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$24.44 | — 16-2 (18) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Saigon Warriorsavg 78¢ | $99.99 | $97.74 | -$2.25 | 23% 123-414 (537) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Nothin'Hereavg 23¢ | $10.36 | $9.91 | -$0.45 | 55% 650-530 (1180) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Nothin'Hereavg 17¢ | $5 | $6.76 | +$1.76 | 41% 3158-4508 (7666) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Nothin'Hereavg 23¢ | $2.3 | $2.2 | -$0.1 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
Invested
$1,127.95
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$24.44
Record
—
16-2 (18)
Invested
$99.99
Value
$97.74
PnL
-$2.25
Record
23%
123-414 (537)
Invested
$10.36
Value
$9.91
PnL
-$0.45
Record
55%
650-530 (1180)
Invested
$5
Value
$6.76
PnL
+$1.76
Record
41%
3158-4508 (7666)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.2
PnL
-$0.1
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.