Game Handicap: SGW (-1.5) vs Nothin'Here (+1.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Saigon Warriors (43%) · Saigon Warriors at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Saigon Warriors55¢Nothin'Here45¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saigon Warriors

Consensus Traders

Saigon Warriors 43%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$568.81

Smart Money Entry

78.5¢ → 55¢

-30% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaigon Warriors at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saigon Warriors

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Saigon Warriors55%

Nothin'Here45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saigon Warriors3 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares5,930

Combined PnL-$860.62

Nothin'Here4 traders

Total Value$498.73

Total Shares1,193

Combined PnL+$291.81

Saigon Warriors — 43%Nothin'Here — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Saigon Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nothin'Here) and the top 1000 (6 on Saigon Warriors) disagree here.

sharpSaigon Warriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNothin'Here 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNothin'Here 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Saigon Warriors 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BL bloodmaster	Saigon Warriorsavg 78.6¢	$4.5K	$3.7K	-$843.92	90% 19-2 (21)
VeryLucky888CTR	Nothin'Hereavg 18.1¢	$356.96	$450	+$287.7	52% 718-671 (1389)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Saigon Warriorsavg 75¢	$99.99	$85.32	-$14.67	26% 147-422 (569)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Nothin'Hereavg 17¢	$10.41	$27.61	+$17.21	40% 3231-4852 (8083)
CC ccllarCTR<$100	Nothin'Hereavg 26¢	$31.72	$19.52	-$12.2	41% 28-41 (69)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Saigon Warriorsavg 66.2¢	$12.02	$9.98	-$2.03	32% 276-598 (874)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Nothin'Hereavg 25¢	$2.5	$1.6	-$0.9	38% 464-772 (1236)

bloodmaster

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$4,542.92

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$843.92

Record

90%

19-2 (21)

VeryLucky888CTR

Nothin'Here

Invested

$356.96

Value

$450

PnL

+$287.7

Record

52%

718-671 (1389)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$99.99

Value

$85.32

PnL

-$14.67

Record

26%

147-422 (569)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Nothin'Here

Invested

$10.41

Value

$27.61

PnL

+$17.21

Record

40%

3231-4852 (8083)

ccllarCTR<$100

Nothin'Here

Invested

$31.72

Value

$19.52

PnL

-$12.2

Record

41%

28-41 (69)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$12.02

Value

$9.98

PnL

-$2.03

Record

32%

276-598 (874)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Nothin'Here

Invested

$2.5

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.9

Record

38%

464-772 (1236)

Research grade

NeutralSaigon Warriors at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Saigon Warriors

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Saigon Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nothin'Here) and the top 1000 (6 on Saigon Warriors) disagree here.

sharpSaigon Warriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNothin'Here 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNothin'Here 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Saigon Warriors 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saigon Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.