LoL: LOS vs LYON - Game 2 Winner

53 of 92 top Polymarket traders hold LYON (58%) · LYON at 100¢ · $1.3M held · ends Nov 1

LOS<1¢LYON>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LYON

Consensus Traders

LYON 58%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3M

Combined PnL

$-64.9K

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 100¢

+46% since entry · 53 traders

Research grade

NeutralLYON at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LYON

53 of 92 top traders (58%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed39 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

LOS0%

LYON100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LOS39 traders

Total Value$520.6K

Total Shares752,478

Combined PnL+$60.7K

LYON53 traders

Total Value$700.2K

Total Shares1,117,765

Combined PnL$-125.6K

LOS — 42%LYON — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR	LOSavg 49.3¢	$164.5K	$155.8K	$-8.7K	54% 2422-2097 (4519)
RO Rock.San	LYONavg 99.9¢	$149.8K	$149.9K	+$75	89% 12007-1415 (13422)
LA landighertz	LYONavg 99.9¢	$135.1K	$135.1K	+$67.6	99% 1147-4 (1151)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	LOSavg 41.4¢	$68.0K	$109.8K	+$41.8K	53% 911-803 (1714)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008	LYONavg 58.9¢	$214.9K	$78.5K	$-136.4K	50% 7318-7451 (14769)
PN pnhct	LYONavg 51.4¢	$60.8K	$62.6K	+$1.7K	53% 520-454 (974)
TH THEHIGHLIFE	LYONavg 58¢	$48.6K	$54.5K	+$9.2K	54% 2479-2133 (4612)
YO yong32CTR	LOSavg 57.2¢	$45.9K	$44.3K	$-1.6K	69% 47-21 (68)
zb8	LYONavg 58.8¢	$40.3K	$38.0K	$-2.3K	53% 633-551 (1184)
SD sdfqq1ARB<$100	LOSavg 59.2¢	$42.3K	$36.7K	$-5.6K	59% 271-185 (456)
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 59.2¢	$28.1K	$28.2K	+$123.89
└ LYON leg	LYONavg 67.8¢	$14.2K	$8.5K	$-5.7K
DamwonChampions2026CTR	LOSavg 34.7¢	$14.8K	$30.1K	+$15.3K	53% 2063-1825 (3888)
JustADonkCTR	LOSavg 56.7¢	$36.9K	$28.4K	$-5.1K	55% 894-738 (1632)
minjiCTR	LOSavg 32.2¢	$13.0K	$27.0K	+$14.0K	52% 1794-1651 (3445)
0xheavy888CTR	LOSavg 34.3¢	$14.5K	$25.1K	+$10.6K	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
FK fkAL	LYONavg 54.9¢	$19.6K	$24.2K	+$4.5K	63% 2038-1208 (3246)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	LYONavg 58¢	$17.9K	$18.1K	+$154.29	54% 1228-1034 (2262)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	LOSavg 41.3¢	$15.3K	$17.2K	+$1.9K	58% 1864-1345 (3209)
Nooserac	LYONavg 58¢	$17.0K	$17.2K	+$146.87	52% 5778-5367 (11145)
LI LinkE5	LYONavg 58¢	$16.0K	$16.1K	+$137.93	47% 706-788 (1494)
-Pain	LYONavg 52.1¢	$9.0K	$11.4K	+$3.4K	55% 414-333 (747)
AO aomendushen008	LYONavg 87.1¢	$12.4K	$10.2K	$-2.3K	50% 941-926 (1867)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	LOSavg 54.2¢	$10.2K	$10.1K	-$119.94	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
FR frohp5	LYONavg 65¢	$8.9K	$9.4K	+$478.52	65% 1985-1057 (3042)
CA Catch8877	LYONavg 59¢	$7.7K	$8.0K	+$325	52% 153-142 (295)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	LOSavg 32.8¢	$5.0K	$7.6K	+$2.5K	58% 18675-13734 (32409)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR

LOS

Invested

$164,498.22

Value

$155.8K

PnL

$-8.7K

Record

54%

2422-2097 (4519)

Rock.San

LYON

Invested

$149,850

Value

$149.9K

PnL

+$75

Record

89%

12007-1415 (13422)

landighertz

LYON

Invested

$135,064.8

Value

$135.1K

PnL

+$67.6

Record

99%

1147-4 (1151)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

LOS

Invested

$68,036.87

Value

$109.8K

PnL

+$41.8K

Record

53%

911-803 (1714)

jakepaulthegoat2008

LYON

Invested

$214,860.67

Value

$78.5K

PnL

$-136.4K

Record

50%

7318-7451 (14769)

pnhct

LYON

Invested

$60,836.98

Value

$62.6K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

53%

520-454 (974)

THEHIGHLIFE

LYON

Invested

$48,605.36

Value

$54.5K

PnL

+$9.2K

Record

54%

2479-2133 (4612)

yong32CTR

LOS

Invested

$45,877.86

Value

$44.3K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

69%

47-21 (68)

zb8

LYON

Invested

$40,306.64

Value

$38.0K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

53%

633-551 (1184)

sdfqq1ARB<$100

LOS

Invested

$42,306.82

Value

$36.7K

PnL

$-5.6K

Record

59%

271-185 (456)

Both legs:

LOS$28,075.0559.2¢+$123.89

LYON$14,231.7667.8¢$-5.7K

DamwonChampions2026CTR

LOS

Invested

$14,790.07

Value

$30.1K

PnL

+$15.3K

Record

53%

2063-1825 (3888)

JustADonkCTR

LOS

Invested

$36,901.21

Value

$28.4K

PnL

$-5.1K

Record

55%

894-738 (1632)

minjiCTR

LOS

Invested

$13,013.71

Value

$27.0K

PnL

+$14.0K

Record

52%

1794-1651 (3445)

0xheavy888CTR

LOS

Invested

$14,549.44

Value

$25.1K

PnL

+$10.6K

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

fkAL

LYON

Invested

$19,647.78

Value

$24.2K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

63%

2038-1208 (3246)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

LYON

Invested

$17,897.55

Value

$18.1K

PnL

+$154.29

Record

54%

1228-1034 (2262)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

LOS

Invested

$15,294.99

Value

$17.2K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

58%

1864-1345 (3209)

Nooserac

LYON

Invested

$17,037.32

Value

$17.2K

PnL

+$146.87

Record

52%

5778-5367 (11145)

LinkE5

LYON

Invested

$15,999.87

Value

$16.1K

PnL

+$137.93

Record

47%

706-788 (1494)

-Pain

LYON

Invested

$9,040.65

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

55%

414-333 (747)

aomendushen008

LYON

Invested

$12,430.99

Value

$10.2K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

50%

941-926 (1867)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

LOS

Invested

$10,170.04

Value

$10.1K

PnL

-$119.94

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

frohp5

LYON

Invested

$8,888

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$478.52

Record

65%

1985-1057 (3042)

Catch8877

LYON

Invested

$7,670

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$325

Record

52%

153-142 (295)

BillBenter2026CTR

LOS

Invested

$5,015.61

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

58%

18675-13734 (32409)

Research grade

NeutralLYON at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

LYON

53 of 92 top traders (58%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed39 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LYON wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.