LoL: LOS vs LYON - Game 1 Winner

37 of 67 top Polymarket traders hold LOS (55%) · LOS at 100¢ · $658K held · ends Nov 1

LOS>99¢LYON<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LOS

Consensus Traders

LOS 55%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$658.4K

Combined PnL

$39.4K

Smart Money Entry

63.5¢ → 100¢

+57% since entry · 37 traders

Research grade

NeutralLOS at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LOS

37 of 67 top traders (55%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed30 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

LOS100%

LYON0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LOS37 traders

Total Value$222.8K

Total Shares323,574

Combined PnL+$3.0K

LYON30 traders

Total Value$234.1K

Total Shares336,765

Combined PnL+$36.4K

LOS — 55%LYON — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CoinTrick	LOSavg 99.9¢	$98.9K	$99.0K	+$49.5	97% 3268-86 (3354)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	LOSavg 52¢	$83.0K	$89.0K	+$6.0K	54% 2422-2097 (4519)
└ LYON leg	LYONavg 43.5¢	$40.1K	$62.2K	+$22.1K
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 52¢	$42.9K	$26.8K	$-16.1K
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	LYONavg 66.9¢	$62.3K	$61.9K	-$357.33	53% 911-803 (1714)
PN pnhct	LOSavg 55.6¢	$42.7K	$45.0K	+$2.3K	53% 520-454 (974)
YO yong32ARB<$100	LOSavg 59.1¢	$42.9K	$37.6K	$-5.3K	69% 47-21 (68)
└ LYON leg	LYONavg 49.5¢	$17.2K	$23.4K	+$6.2K
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 59.1¢	$25.8K	$14.2K	$-11.6K
SD sdfqq1CTR	LYONavg 56.4¢	$21.8K	$25.8K	+$4.1K	59% 271-185 (456)
Nooserac	LOSavg 33¢	$8.2K	$25.0K	+$16.7K	52% 5778-5367 (11145)
FK fkALARB<$100	LOSavg 32.7¢	$18.5K	$23.2K	+$4.7K	63% 2038-1208 (3246)
└ LYON leg	LYONavg 43.4¢	$8.6K	$13.3K	+$4.8K
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 32.7¢	$9.9K	$9.9K	-$70.31
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR	LYONavg 66.4¢	$29.5K	$22.6K	+$436.95	49% 1161-1212 (2373)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	LYONavg 68¢	$20.4K	$20.2K	-$150	58% 1864-1345 (3209)
DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100	LOSavg 54.2¢	$14.4K	$11.1K	$-3.4K	53% 2063-1825 (3888)
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 54.2¢	$12.8K	$7.7K	$-5.1K
└ LYON leg	LYONavg 32.8¢	$1.7K	$3.4K	+$1.8K
0xheavy888ARB<$100	LOSavg 55.3¢	$13.8K	$11.0K	$-2.8K	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 55.3¢	$11.8K	$6.9K	$-4.9K
└ LYON leg	LYONavg 32.3¢	$1.9K	$4.1K	+$2.1K
YI yishiwuchengCTR	LYONavg 55.9¢	$9.1K	$10.7K	+$1.5K	51% 1822-1750 (3572)
BR BrotherObama	LOSavg 36¢	$11.8K	$10.7K	$-1.1K	41% 250-361 (611)
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888CTR	LYONavg 67¢	$9.6K	$9.7K	+$74	57% 666-511 (1177)
solo88888	LOSavg 42.7¢	$11.2K	$8.5K	$-2.7K	41% 182-259 (441)
relativesignificanceCTR	LYONavg 65.3¢	$23.0K	$8.5K	+$717.41	56% 110-86 (196)
US Username2133CTR	LYONavg 52.7¢	$23.2K	$7.6K	+$12.0K	58% 93-68 (161)
JA Ja888ARB<$100	LOSavg 69.9¢	$12.4K	$7.5K	$-3.6K	69% 52-23 (75)
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 69.9¢	$10.0K	$4.6K	$-5.2K
└ LYON leg	LYONavg 31.2¢	$1.3K	$2.9K	+$1.6K
minji	LOSavg 56.4¢	$11.4K	$7.4K	$-4.0K	52% 1794-1651 (3445)
GA gaclfzCTR	LYONavg 52.7¢	$5.7K	$7.3K	+$1.6K	73% 1264-470 (1734)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	LOSavg 53.6¢	$7.0K	$6.9K	-$89.58	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
└ LYON leg	LYONavg 47.1¢	$3.2K	$4.6K	+$1.4K
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 53.6¢	$3.8K	$2.3K	$-1.5K
KateBollingerCTR	LYONavg 61.3¢	$15.0K	$6.8K	+$1.6K	68% 1747-810 (2557)
dodsterbotCTR	LYONavg 64¢	$6.4K	$6.7K	+$349.4	46% 631-740 (1371)
FI five5120CTR	LYONavg 54.4¢	$5.0K	$6.2K	+$1.2K	71% 341-141 (482)

CoinTrick

LOS

Invested

$98,901

Value

$99.0K

PnL

+$49.5

Record

97%

3268-86 (3354)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

LOS

Invested

$82,953.31

Value

$89.0K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

54%

2422-2097 (4519)

Both legs:

LYON$40,065.8443.5¢+$22.1K

LOS$42,887.4852¢$-16.1K

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

LYON

Invested

$62,259.44

Value

$61.9K

PnL

-$357.33

Record

53%

911-803 (1714)

pnhct

LOS

Invested

$42,695.2

Value

$45.0K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

53%

520-454 (974)

yong32ARB<$100

LOS

Invested

$42,923.43

Value

$37.6K

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

69%

47-21 (68)

Both legs:

LYON$17,169.5249.5¢+$6.2K

LOS$25,753.9159.1¢$-11.6K

sdfqq1CTR

LYON

Invested

$21,753.71

Value

$25.8K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

59%

271-185 (456)

Nooserac

LOS

Invested

$8,249.99

Value

$25.0K

PnL

+$16.7K

Record

52%

5778-5367 (11145)

fkALARB<$100

LOS

Invested

$18,517.36

Value

$23.2K

PnL

+$4.7K

Record

63%

2038-1208 (3246)

Both legs:

LYON$8,573.0743.4¢+$4.8K

LOS$9,944.2932.7¢-$70.31

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR

LYON

Invested

$29,534.91

Value

$22.6K

PnL

+$436.95

Record

49%

1161-1212 (2373)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

LYON

Invested

$20,400

Value

$20.2K

PnL

-$150

Record

58%

1864-1345 (3209)

DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100

LOS

Invested

$14,445.53

Value

$11.1K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

53%

2063-1825 (3888)

Both legs:

LOS$12,777.4354.2¢$-5.1K

LYON$1,668.132.8¢+$1.8K

0xheavy888ARB<$100

LOS

Invested

$13,754.97

Value

$11.0K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

Both legs:

LOS$11,815.5455.3¢$-4.9K

LYON$1,939.4332.3¢+$2.1K

yishiwuchengCTR

LYON

Invested

$9,133.68

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

51%

1822-1750 (3572)

BrotherObama

LOS

Invested

$11,803.7

Value

$10.7K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

41%

250-361 (611)

caishenbaoyoufadacai888CTR

LYON

Invested

$9,646

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$74

Record

57%

666-511 (1177)

solo88888

LOS

Invested

$11,220.99

Value

$8.5K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

41%

182-259 (441)

relativesignificanceCTR

LYON

Invested

$22,982.49

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$717.41

Record

56%

110-86 (196)

Username2133CTR

LYON

Invested

$23,240.71

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$12.0K

Record

58%

93-68 (161)

Ja888ARB<$100

LOS

Invested

$12,416.55

Value

$7.5K

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

69%

52-23 (75)

Both legs:

LOS$9,982.7569.9¢$-5.2K

LYON$1,336.231.2¢+$1.6K

minji

LOS

Invested

$11,359.81

Value

$7.4K

PnL

$-4.0K

Record

52%

1794-1651 (3445)

gaclfzCTR

LYON

Invested

$5,699.2

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

73%

1264-470 (1734)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

LOS

Invested

$6,976.34

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$89.58

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

Both legs:

LYON$3,206.3347.1¢+$1.4K

LOS$3,770.0153.6¢$-1.5K

KateBollingerCTR

LYON

Invested

$15,013.38

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

68%

1747-810 (2557)

dodsterbotCTR

LYON

Invested

$6,399.95

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$349.4

Record

46%

631-740 (1371)

five5120CTR

LYON

Invested

$5,000

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

71%

341-141 (482)

Research grade

NeutralLOS at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

LOS

37 of 67 top traders (55%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed30 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LOS wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.