LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs Frank Esports - Game 2 Winner

16 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Frank Esports (55%) · Frank Esports at 100¢ · $50K held · ends Nov 11

Ground Zero Gaming<1¢Frank Esports>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Frank Esports

Consensus Traders

Frank Esports 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$49.6K

Combined PnL

$-9.1K

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 100¢

+54% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralFrank Esports at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Frank Esports

16 of 29 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ground Zero Gaming0%

Frank Esports100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Frank Esports16 traders

Total Value$48.1K

Total Shares48,326

Combined PnL+$9.8K

Ground Zero Gaming13 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares44,224

Combined PnL$-18.9K

Frank Esports — 55%Ground Zero Gaming — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 35%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on Frank Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 35% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Ground Zero Gaming) and the top 1000 (30 on Frank Esports) disagree here.

sharpFrank Esports 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperFrank Esports 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrFrank Esports 60% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedGround Zero Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Frank Esports 63% · 30

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Frank Esportsavg 66.8¢	$11.5K	$11.2K	-$251.65	56% 3836-3007 (6843)
VV VVVSSP	Frank Esportsavg 51.2¢	$4.6K	$7.5K	+$3.2K	24% 15-47 (62)
GT gt7238	Frank Esportsavg 53.2¢	$3.7K	$7.0K	+$3.3K	3% 16-448 (464)
Malfunction-	Frank Esportsavg 89.8¢	$3.7K	$4.1K	+$419.59	98% 121-2 (123)
BR brobrobrobrobro	Frank Esportsavg 61.8¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$50.7	10% 3-28 (31)
31 319113331313111	Frank Esportsavg 67¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$269.39	50% 60-59 (119)
SA sange772	Frank Esportsavg 67.4¢	$2.0K	$3.0K	+$966.54	15% 3-17 (20)
TE testBruno2	Frank Esportsavg 77.9¢	$3.8K	$1.9K	-$100.71	37% 22-37 (59)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Frank Esportsavg 76.6¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$25.34	66% 52-27 (79)
LR lryyy	Frank Esportsavg 88.4¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$20.06	46% 231-275 (506)
FR frohp5	Frank Esportsavg 47.1¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$1.1K	60% 1227-810 (2037)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	Ground Zero Gamingavg 49.9¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	+$36.04	8% 17-185 (202)
10 10scat	Frank Esportsavg 50.7¢	$812.93	$759.76	+$555.03	4% 19-520 (539)
LI lightningbolts	Frank Esportsavg 63¢	$459.45	$728.92	+$269.47	5% 8-145 (153)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Frank Esportsavg 69.7¢	$262.8	$376.6	+$113.8	28% 151-391 (542)
PA pauleta23	Frank Esportsavg 87¢	$342.21	$214.84	+$7.78	28% 179-465 (644)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR	Ground Zero Gamingavg 54¢	$259.99	$129.88	-$44.92	20% 103-404 (507)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	Ground Zero Gamingavg 38.4¢	$1.1K	$122.9	+$50.9	22% 26-91 (117)
└ Ground Zero Gaming leg	Ground Zero Gamingavg 38.4¢	$205.89	$64.42	+$19.99
└ Frank Esports leg	Frank Esportsavg 58.9¢	$39.14	$58.49	+$30.9
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Frank Esportsavg 30.5¢	$10	$28.85	+$18.85	41% 3115-4481 (7596)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Ground Zero Gamingavg 66¢	$23.2	$13.04	-$10.16	48% 1273-1369 (2642)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Ground Zero Gamingavg 58.5¢	$48.86	$10.03	-$38.83	54% 553-469 (1022)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Ground Zero Gamingavg 47.2¢	$6.7K	$7.16	$-6.7K	12% 15-111 (126)
TH THEHIGHLIFECTR	Ground Zero Gamingavg 47¢	$5.8K	$6.22	$-5.8K	52% 1349-1234 (2583)
TKKnoallinCTR	Ground Zero Gamingavg 31.1¢	$2.9K	$4.68	$-2.9K	9% 4-40 (44)
latvian.demonCTR	Ground Zero Gamingavg 55.6¢	$2.9K	$2.65	$-2.9K	4% 20-432 (452)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Frank Esports

Invested

$11,479.45

Value

$11.2K

PnL

-$251.65

Record

56%

3836-3007 (6843)

VVVSSP

Frank Esports

Invested

$4,621.6

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

24%

15-47 (62)

gt7238

Frank Esports

Invested

$3,707.41

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

16-448 (464)

Malfunction-

Frank Esports

Invested

$3,703.68

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$419.59

Record

98%

121-2 (123)

brobrobrobrobro

Frank Esports

Invested

$3,682.19

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$50.7

Record

10%

3-28 (31)

319113331313111

Frank Esports

Invested

$2,797.54

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$269.39

Record

50%

60-59 (119)

sange772

Frank Esports

Invested

$2,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$966.54

Record

15%

3-17 (20)

testBruno2

Frank Esports

Invested

$3,786.8

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$100.71

Record

37%

22-37 (59)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Frank Esports

Invested

$1,667.44

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$25.34

Record

66%

52-27 (79)

lryyy

Frank Esports

Invested

$1,551.72

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$20.06

Record

46%

231-275 (506)

frohp5

Frank Esports

Invested

$1,354.88

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

60%

1227-810 (2037)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

Ground Zero Gaming

Invested

$1,345.09

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$36.04

Record

17-185 (202)

10scat

Frank Esports

Invested

$812.93

Value

$759.76

PnL

+$555.03

Record

19-520 (539)

lightningbolts

Frank Esports

Invested

$459.45

Value

$728.92

PnL

+$269.47

Record

8-145 (153)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Frank Esports

Invested

$262.8

Value

$376.6

PnL

+$113.8

Record

28%

151-391 (542)

pauleta23

Frank Esports

Invested

$342.21

Value

$214.84

PnL

+$7.78

Record

28%

179-465 (644)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR

Ground Zero Gaming

Invested

$259.99

Value

$129.88

PnL

-$44.92

Record

20%

103-404 (507)

calculate10ARB<$100

Ground Zero Gaming

Invested

$1,105.14

Value

$122.9

PnL

+$50.9

Record

22%

26-91 (117)

Both legs:

Ground Zero Gaming$205.8938.4¢+$19.99

Frank Esports$39.1458.9¢+$30.9

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Frank Esports

Invested

$10

Value

$28.85

PnL

+$18.85

Record

41%

3115-4481 (7596)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Ground Zero Gaming

Invested

$23.2

Value

$13.04

PnL

-$10.16

Record

48%

1273-1369 (2642)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Ground Zero Gaming

Invested

$48.86

Value

$10.03

PnL

-$38.83

Record

54%

553-469 (1022)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Ground Zero Gaming

Invested

$6,749.45

Value

$7.16

PnL

$-6.7K

Record

12%

15-111 (126)

THEHIGHLIFECTR

Ground Zero Gaming

Invested

$5,848.86

Value

$6.22

PnL

$-5.8K

Record

52%

1349-1234 (2583)

TKKnoallinCTR

Ground Zero Gaming

Invested

$2,906.1

Value

$4.68

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

4-40 (44)

latvian.demonCTR

Ground Zero Gaming

Invested

$2,947.01

Value

$2.65

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

20-432 (452)

Research grade

NeutralFrank Esports at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Frank Esports

16 of 29 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 35%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on Frank Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 35% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Ground Zero Gaming) and the top 1000 (30 on Frank Esports) disagree here.

sharpFrank Esports 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperFrank Esports 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrFrank Esports 60% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedGround Zero Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Frank Esports 63% · 30

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Frank Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.