Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)
10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Bilibili Gaming (63%) · Bilibili Gaming at 74¢ · $183K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Bilibili Gaming
16
Bilibili Gaming 63%
$182.8K
$179.64
74¢ → 73.5¢
-1% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralBilibili Gaming at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LA lalalalalalallalalalalaCTR | Dplus KIAavg 26.9¢ | $167.5K | $46.1K | +$935.99 | 34% 10-19 (29) |
TH Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl | Bilibili Gamingavg 74¢ | $40.9K | $40.6K | -$267.93 | 60% 21-14 (35) |
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR | Dplus KIAavg 25¢ | $25.0K | $28.0K | +$500 | 50% 7647-7795 (15442) |
 LlamaEnjoyer | Bilibili Gamingavg 75.9¢ | $24.9K | $24.0K | -$964.16 | 82% 2162-480 (2642) |
 Anjun | Bilibili Gamingavg 73¢ | $16.2K | $16.1K | +$1.93 | 55% 5185-4273 (9458) |
JI jizzbucket57 | Bilibili Gamingavg 73¢ | $13.5K | $13.5K | -$0 | 49% 1129-1173 (2302) |
VI vibing123 | Bilibili Gamingavg 73¢ | $7.3K | $7.3K | -$0 | 51% 1627-1537 (3164) |
 Reformedx | Bilibili Gamingavg 73¢ | $3.6K | $3.7K | +$25 | 51% 870-839 (1709) |
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494 | Bilibili Gamingavg 73.6¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$15.89 | 52% 1306-1195 (2501) |
 nigiri99CTR | Dplus KIAavg 27.1¢ | $631.71 | $617.45 | -$14.26 | 46% 8594-10246 (18840) |
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR | Dplus KIAavg 26.9¢ | $485.04 | $504 | -$26.04 | 58% 1124-830 (1954) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Bilibili Gamingavg 74¢ | $444 | $438 | -$6 | 51% 1900-1851 (3751) |
 yabanci<$100 | Bilibili Gamingavg 72¢ | $93.6 | $95.55 | +$1.95 | 50% 88-88 (176) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Dplus KIAavg 25¢ | $78.7 | $87.65 | +$8.95 | 52% 8768-7972 (16740) |
PI PiEDawg | Bilibili Gamingavg 73¢ | $863.59 | $5.11 | -$0 | 35% 1822-3397 (5219) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Dplus KIAavg 27¢ | $2.7 | $2.8 | +$0.1 | 50% 8292-8346 (16638) |
Invested
$167,544.95
Value
$46.1K
PnL
+$935.99
Record
34%
10-19 (29)
Invested
$40,910.16
Value
$40.6K
PnL
-$267.93
Record
60%
21-14 (35)
Invested
$25,000
Value
$28.0K
PnL
+$500
Record
50%
7647-7795 (15442)
LlamaEnjoyerInvested
$24,924.58
Value
$24.0K
PnL
-$964.16
Record
82%
2162-480 (2642)
AnjunInvested
$16,222.06
Value
$16.1K
PnL
+$1.93
Record
55%
5185-4273 (9458)
Invested
$13,518.87
Value
$13.5K
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
1129-1173 (2302)
Invested
$7,299.99
Value
$7.3K
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
1627-1537 (3164)
ReformedxInvested
$3,650
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$25
Record
51%
870-839 (1709)
Invested
$1,840.89
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$15.89
Record
52%
1306-1195 (2501)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$631.71
Value
$617.45
PnL
-$14.26
Record
46%
8594-10246 (18840)
Invested
$485.04
Value
$504
PnL
-$26.04
Record
58%
1124-830 (1954)
Invested
$444
Value
$438
PnL
-$6
Record
51%
1900-1851 (3751)
yabanci<$100Invested
$93.6
Value
$95.55
PnL
+$1.95
Record
50%
88-88 (176)
Invested
$78.7
Value
$87.65
PnL
+$8.95
Record
52%
8768-7972 (16740)
Invested
$863.59
Value
$5.11
PnL
-$0
Record
35%
1822-3397 (5219)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
8292-8346 (16638)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
lalalalalalallalalalala
CTRDplus KIA — $46.1K
Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl
Bilibili Gaming — $40.6K
jakepaulthegoat2008
CTRDplus KIA — $28.0K
LlamaEnjoyer
Bilibili Gaming — $24.0K
Anjun
Bilibili Gaming — $16.1K
jizzbucket57
Bilibili Gaming — $13.5K
vibing123
Bilibili Gaming — $7.3K
Reformedx
Bilibili Gaming — $3.7K
0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494
Bilibili Gaming — $1.8K
nigiri99
CTRDplus KIA — $617.45