Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 53¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$1.1K
$0.9
72.9¢ → 52.5¢
-28% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Underavg 73¢ | $730 | $525 | -$205 | 57% 17847-13616 (31463) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 27¢ | $297 | $522.5 | +$225.5 | 52% 49211-46180 (95391) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $73 | $52.5 | -$20.5 | 48% 71959-77656 (149615) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Underavg 56.2¢ | $2.81 | $2.63 | -$0.13 | 47% 120-133 (253) |
87 0x87a7...8ceaCTR<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $1.35 | $2.38 | +$1.03 | — |
Invested
$730
Value
$525
PnL
-$205
Record
57%
17847-13616 (31463)
Invested
$297
Value
$522.5
PnL
+$225.5
Record
52%
49211-46180 (95391)
Invested
$73
Value
$52.5
PnL
-$20.5
Record
48%
71959-77656 (149615)
Invested
$2.81
Value
$2.63
PnL
-$0.13
Record
47%
120-133 (253)
Invested
$1.35
Value
$2.38
PnL
+$1.03
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.