Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club: Both Teams to Score

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 51¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Yes51¢No49¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$103.32

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 50.5¢

-17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,409

Combined PnL+$154.89

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,359

Combined PnL-$51.58

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 39.9¢	$527.63	$655.4	+$127.77	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 61¢	$488	$468	+$4	56% 8222-6527 (14749)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Yesavg 61.8¢	$425.62	$409.78	-$15.84	56% 8730-6788 (15518)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 40.1¢	$370.05	$383.43	+$13.37	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 59¢	$407.85	$367.32	-$40.52	48% 62393-67249 (129642)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 38.2¢	$217.9	$225.52	+$7.62	49% 1791-1892 (3683)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 43.5¢	$191.56	$198.37	+$6.81	48% 1767-1905 (3672)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 61¢	$518.48	$109.71	+$7.61	58% 47486-34282 (81768)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$57.96	$55.77	-$2.19	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
PA Pan9X<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$31.5	$25.25	-$6.25	54% 10448-8768 (19216)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$2.94	$4.44	+$1.51	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$3.1	$2.53	-$0.58	50% 21541-21839 (43380)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$527.63

Value

$655.4

PnL

+$127.77

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$488

Value

$468

PnL

+$4

Record

56%

8222-6527 (14749)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Yes

Invested

$425.62

Value

$409.78

PnL

-$15.84

Record

56%

8730-6788 (15518)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$370.05

Value

$383.43

PnL

+$13.37

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$407.85

Value

$367.32

PnL

-$40.52

Record

48%

62393-67249 (129642)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$217.9

Value

$225.52

PnL

+$7.62

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$191.56

Value

$198.37

PnL

+$6.81

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$518.48

Value

$109.71

PnL

+$7.61

Record

58%

47486-34282 (81768)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$57.96

Value

$55.77

PnL

-$2.19

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

Pan9X<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.5

Value

$25.25

PnL

-$6.25

Record

54%

10448-8768 (19216)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$2.94

Value

$4.44

PnL

+$1.51

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.1

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.58

Record

50%

21541-21839 (43380)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.