Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 5.5

3 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 87¢ · $55K held · ended Nov 8

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 20%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$55.1K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 86.5¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 15 top traders (20%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$44.2K

Total Shares56,049

Combined PnL-$10.56

Over12 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares25,117

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bigbeliever	Underavg 78.7¢	$42.5K	$42.4K	-$81.56	— 2-3 (5)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 81.9¢	$4.2K	$3.5K	-$653.67	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
└ Under leg	Underavg 81.9¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$131.06
└ Over leg	Overavg 23.5¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$784.73
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 24.2¢	$4.2K	$3.0K	$-1.2K	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
└ Over leg	Overavg 24.2¢	$3.2K	$2.0K	$-1.2K
└ Under leg	Underavg 82.1¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$36.62
MI MinevaJ	Underavg 84¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$70	56% 1205-933 (2138)
RN1CTR	Overavg 21.7¢	$2.9K	$1.7K	$-1.2K	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Overavg 20¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$498.1	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
└ Over leg	Overavg 20¢	$1.3K	$839.02	-$503.41
└ Under leg	Underavg 86¢	$304.51	$309.82	+$5.31
CI cigarettesCTR	Overavg 21¢	$1.1K	$625	-$425	50% 65477-65792 (131269)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 16¢	$318.08	$268.38	-$49.7	56% 2667-2054 (4721)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 18¢	$223.53	$198.69	-$24.84	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 20¢	$209.02	$141.26	-$67.76	46% 30568-35672 (66240)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 24.1¢	$256.95	$133.54	-$123.41	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 23¢	$230	$125	-$105	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 21.2¢	$126.93	$75.71	-$2.15	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 81.4¢	$66.11	$47.89	+$1.01	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 24.3¢	$12.16	$6.74	-$5.42	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$6.17	$6.35	+$0.18	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$5.9	$6.07	+$0.17	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$1.92	$1.5	-$0.42	53% 3744-3342 (7086)

bigbeliever

Under

Invested

$42,464.51

Value

$42.4K

PnL

-$81.56

Record

—

2-3 (5)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,185.01

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$653.67

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

Both legs:

Under$2,338.7381.9¢+$131.06

Over$1,846.2823.5¢-$784.73

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,204.16

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

Both legs:

Over$3,179.9224.2¢$-1.2K

Under$1,024.2482.1¢+$36.62

MinevaJ

Under

Invested

$1,680

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$70

Record

56%

1205-933 (2138)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,882.64

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,646.94

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$498.1

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

Both legs:

Over$1,342.4320¢-$503.41

Under$304.5186¢+$5.31

cigarettesCTR

Over

Invested

$1,050

Value

$625

PnL

-$425

Record

50%

65477-65792 (131269)

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$318.08

Value

$268.38

PnL

-$49.7

Record

56%

2667-2054 (4721)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$223.53

Value

$198.69

PnL

-$24.84

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$209.02

Value

$141.26

PnL

-$67.76

Record

46%

30568-35672 (66240)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$256.95

Value

$133.54

PnL

-$123.41

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$230

Value

$125

PnL

-$105

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$126.93

Value

$75.71

PnL

-$2.15

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$66.11

Value

$47.89

PnL

+$1.01

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.16

Value

$6.74

PnL

-$5.42

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.17

Value

$6.35

PnL

+$0.18

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.9

Value

$6.07

PnL

+$0.17

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.92

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.42

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 15 top traders (20%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.