Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5

3 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Under (14%) · Under at 69¢ · $113K held · ends Nov 8

Over32¢Under68¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 14%

Total Value

$113.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

70.3¢ → 68.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 21 top traders (14%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$79.5K

Total Shares115,995

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Over18 traders

Total Value$33.7K

Total Shares102,330

Combined PnL+$615.27

Under — 14%Over — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bigbeliever	Underavg 70.3¢	$81.2K	$79.2K	$-2.1K	— 2-3 (5)
RN1CTR	Overavg 29.6¢	$9.5K	$10.1K	+$602.38	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 32¢	$6.2K	$6.9K	-$72.13	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
KY Kyn008CTR	Overavg 31¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$69.85	48% 314-342 (656)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 31.7¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	-$28.75	46% 30568-35672 (66240)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 31.1¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	+$47.97	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 31.3¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$15.93	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 32¢	$918	$903.66	-$14.34	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 32¢	$497.26	$489.49	-$7.77	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 31.6¢	$341.28	$339.89	-$1.39	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
SE sentrio	Underavg 68¢	$278	$275.95	-$2.04	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 31¢	$155	$157.5	+$2.5	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$87.04	$88.4	+$1.36	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 31.3¢	$68.13	$68.67	+$0.54	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 31.5¢	$44.21	$37.49	+$0.06	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 32.8¢	$36.59	$35.12	-$1.47	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Underavg 68¢	$19.6	$19.46	-$0.14	64% 2142-1184 (3326)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 31.4¢	$18.19	$18.27	+$0.08	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Overavg 30.3¢	$6.05	$6.3	+$0.25	52% 1527-1404 (2931)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$5	$5.25	+$0.25	32% 21135-45368 (66503)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.58	-$0.03	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

bigbeliever

Under

Invested

$81,212.66

Value

$79.2K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

—

2-3 (5)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$9,507.55

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$602.38

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$6,203.52

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$72.13

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

Kyn008CTR

Over

Invested

$4,330.43

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$69.85

Record

48%

314-342 (656)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$4,394.99

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$28.75

Record

46%

30568-35672 (66240)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$3,084.19

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$47.97

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$2,780.57

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$15.93

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$918

Value

$903.66

PnL

-$14.34

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$497.26

Value

$489.49

PnL

-$7.77

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$341.28

Value

$339.89

PnL

-$1.39

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$278

Value

$275.95

PnL

-$2.04

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$155

Value

$157.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$87.04

Value

$88.4

PnL

+$1.36

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$68.13

Value

$68.67

PnL

+$0.54

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.21

Value

$37.49

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.59

Value

$35.12

PnL

-$1.47

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

darkumbreon88<$100

Under

Invested

$19.6

Value

$19.46

PnL

-$0.14

Record

64%

2142-1184 (3326)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.19

Value

$18.27

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.05

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

1527-1404 (2931)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

32%

21135-45368 (66503)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.58

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 21 top traders (14%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.