Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5

2 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (14%) · Over at 90¢ · $67K held · ends Nov 8

Over90¢Under10¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 14%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$66.8K

Combined PnL

$84.37

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 89.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 14 top traders (14%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over90%

Under11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$57.0K

Total Shares63,690

Combined PnL-$318.45

Under12 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares80,499

Combined PnL+$402.82

Over — 14%Under — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thetesterguy	Overavg 90¢	$56.9K	$56.6K	-$316.3	90% 101-11 (112)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 10¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$133.44	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 10¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$120.06	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Underavg 10¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$97.15	53% 6640-5923 (12563)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 89¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$18.69	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
└ Over leg	Overavg 89¢	$942.13	$947.42	+$5.29
└ Under leg	Underavg 10¢	$268	$281.4	+$13.4
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 10¢	$377.33	$396.2	+$18.87	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
nigiri99	Overavg 90¢	$430	$384.85	-$2.15	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 10¢	$258.6	$271.53	+$12.93	46% 30568-35672 (66240)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 10¢	$133.2	$139.86	+$6.66	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Underavg 10¢	$121.34	$126.03	+$4.68	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
└ Under leg	Underavg 10¢	$90.19	$94.7	+$4.51
└ Over leg	Overavg 89¢	$31.15	$31.33	+$0.18
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 10¢	$100	$105	+$5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 10¢	$100	$105	+$5	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$40	$42	+$2	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$15	$13.44	+$0.64	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 9.8¢	$12.98	$11.34	+$0.87	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$4.2	$4.41	+$0.21	52% 27203-24713 (51916)

thetesterguy

Over

Invested

$56,933.91

Value

$56.6K

PnL

-$316.3

Record

90%

101-11 (112)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$2,668.76

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$133.44

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$2,401.17

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$120.06

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Under

Invested

$1,943

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$97.15

Record

53%

6640-5923 (12563)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,210.13

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$18.69

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

Both legs:

Invested

$377.33

Value

$396.2

PnL

+$18.87

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$430

Value

$384.85

PnL

-$2.15

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$258.6

Value

$271.53

PnL

+$12.93

Record

46%

30568-35672 (66240)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$133.2

Value

$139.86

PnL

+$6.66

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

sentrioARB<$100

Under

Invested

$121.34

Value

$126.03

PnL

+$4.68

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

Both legs:

Invested

$100

Value

$105

PnL

+$5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$100

Value

$105

PnL

+$5

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40

Value

$42

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15

Value

$13.44

PnL

+$0.64

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.98

Value

$11.34

PnL

+$0.87

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$0.21

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 90%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 14 top traders (14%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.