Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 0.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (31%) · Over at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Over98¢Under2¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

97.7¢ → 97.7¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over98%

Under2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares7,261

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Over4 traders

Total Value$315.68

Total Shares319

Combined PnL+$0.05

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 1.9¢	$43	$1.1K	+$1.1K	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 97.3¢	$193.56	$209.1	+$15.53	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Over leg	Overavg 97.3¢	$122.5	$122.71	+$0.21
└ Under leg	Underavg 2.1¢	$71.06	$86.39	+$15.32
XT xtxpleasecallme	Overavg 97.7¢	$146.81	$146.81	-$0	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 97.7¢	$139.9	$139.9	+$0	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 2.4¢	$3.42	$71.23	+$67.81	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$57.12	$65.69	+$8.57	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 2.3¢	$21.63	$21.52	-$0.12	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 97.3¢	$16.28	$16.3	+$0.03	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 2.3¢	$14.64	$14.96	+$0.32	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 97.3¢	$12.65	$12.67	+$0.02	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$0.45	$7.34	+$6.9	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$4.2	$4.78	+$0.59	55% 1428-1180 (2608)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 2.3¢	$3.1	$3.1	+$0	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 2.2¢	$1.47	$1.54	+$0.07	49% 1844-1936 (3780)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$43

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$193.56

Value

$209.1

PnL

+$15.53

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Over$122.597.3¢+$0.21

Under$71.062.1¢+$15.32

xtxpleasecallme

Over

Invested

$146.81

Value

$146.81

PnL

-$0

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$139.9

Value

$139.9

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.42

Value

$71.23

PnL

+$67.81

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$57.12

Value

$65.69

PnL

+$8.57

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.63

Value

$21.52

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$16.28

Value

$16.3

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.64

Value

$14.96

PnL

+$0.32

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$12.65

Value

$12.67

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.45

Value

$7.34

PnL

+$6.9

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.78

PnL

+$0.59

Record

55%

1428-1180 (2608)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.