Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5)
2 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold FC Barcelona (15%) · FC Barcelona at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
FC Barcelona
13
FC Barcelona 15%
$4.2K
-$160.72
96¢ → 95.8¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFC Barcelona at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 13 top traders (15%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
10% of non-arb traders are on FC Barcelona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | FC Barcelonaavg 96¢ | $2.2K | $2.6K | -$19.21 | 50% 32540-32687 (65227) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Club Atlético de Madridavg 4.8¢ | $560.03 | $492.95 | -$67.08 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Club Atlético de Madridavg 5.6¢ | $216.53 | $217.21 | +$0.68 | 50% 48537-48152 (96689) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Club Atlético de Madridavg 4.3¢ | $221.23 | $216.08 | -$5.14 | 46% 30563-35669 (66232) |
HI hi774cCTR | Club Atlético de Madridavg 4.8¢ | $195.86 | $180.81 | -$15.05 | 46% 5609-6517 (12126) |
LI LimousinCTR | Club Atlético de Madridavg 5.6¢ | $2.3K | $112.05 | -$14.74 | 49% 2102-2190 (4292) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Club Atlético de Madridavg 5.8¢ | $127.34 | $105.54 | -$21.8 | 48% 2039-2213 (4252) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | FC Barcelonaavg 95¢ | $100 | $100.21 | +$0.21 | 32% 21107-45346 (66453) |
SE sentrioCTR | Club Atlético de Madridavg 4.9¢ | $102.56 | $90 | -$12.56 | 51% 27916-27361 (55277) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Club Atlético de Madridavg 5.1¢ | $54.06 | $52.47 | -$1.59 | 48% 3580-3942 (7522) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Club Atlético de Madridavg 5¢ | $26.58 | $25.3 | -$1.28 | 45% 14412-17706 (32118) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100 | Club Atlético de Madridavg 5.6¢ | $22.4 | $19.2 | -$3.2 | 51% 2075-2021 (4096) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Club Atlético de Madridavg 4¢ | $1 | $1.05 | +$0.05 | 52% 1527-1394 (2921) |
Invested
$2,152.23
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$19.21
Record
50%
32540-32687 (65227)
Invested
$560.03
Value
$492.95
PnL
-$67.08
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$216.53
Value
$217.21
PnL
+$0.68
Record
50%
48537-48152 (96689)
Invested
$221.23
Value
$216.08
PnL
-$5.14
Record
46%
30563-35669 (66232)
Invested
$195.86
Value
$180.81
PnL
-$15.05
Record
46%
5609-6517 (12126)
Invested
$2,263.56
Value
$112.05
PnL
-$14.74
Record
49%
2102-2190 (4292)
Invested
$127.34
Value
$105.54
PnL
-$21.8
Record
48%
2039-2213 (4252)
Invested
$100
Value
$100.21
PnL
+$0.21
Record
32%
21107-45346 (66453)
Invested
$102.56
Value
$90
PnL
-$12.56
Record
51%
27916-27361 (55277)
Invested
$54.06
Value
$52.47
PnL
-$1.59
Record
48%
3580-3942 (7522)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$26.58
Value
$25.3
PnL
-$1.28
Record
45%
14412-17706 (32118)
Invested
$22.4
Value
$19.2
PnL
-$3.2
Record
51%
2075-2021 (4096)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
52%
1527-1394 (2921)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
GoalLineGhost
FC Barcelona — $2.6K
Flaznorp
CTRClub Atlético de Madrid — $492.95
SnakeBall
CTRClub Atlético de Madrid — $217.21
LuckyLoo
CTRClub Atlético de Madrid — $216.08
hi774c
CTRClub Atlético de Madrid — $180.81
Limousin
CTRClub Atlético de Madrid — $112.05
LightParadox
CTRClub Atlético de Madrid — $105.54
xtxpleasecallme
FC Barcelona — $100.21
sentrio
CTRClub Atlético de Madrid — $90
dv-pm
CTRClub Atlético de Madrid — $52.47