Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)

13 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold FC Barcelona (65%) · FC Barcelona at 95¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 8

Club Atlético de Madrid6¢FC Barcelona94¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Barcelona

Consensus Traders

FC Barcelona 65%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.0K

Combined PnL

$259.17

Smart Money Entry

84.7¢ → 94.5¢

+12% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Barcelona at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Barcelona

13 of 20 top traders (65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Club Atlético de Madrid6%

FC Barcelona95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Barcelona13 traders

Total Value$16.7K

Total Shares17,390

Combined PnL+$448.67

Club Atlético de Madrid7 traders

Total Value$766.73

Total Shares6,041

Combined PnL-$189.5

FC Barcelona — 65%Club Atlético de Madrid — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on FC Barcelona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClub Atlético de Madrid 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrFC Barcelona 50% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000FC Barcelona 57% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	FC Barcelonaavg 87¢	$7.9K	$8.5K	+$598.9	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
GO GoalLineGhost	FC Barcelonaavg 80.1¢	$5.3K	$5.1K	-$193.68	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
P1 P1kaso	FC Barcelonaavg 87¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$7.5	64% 1196-686 (1882)
nigiri99ARB<$100	Club Atlético de Madridavg 13.1¢	$594.44	$892.32	+$22.4	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
└ Club Atlético de Madrid leg	Club Atlético de Madridavg 13.1¢	$361.94	$664.32	+$26.9
└ FC Barcelona leg	FC Barcelonaavg 77.5¢	$232.5	$228	-$4.5
38 38791873984189	FC Barcelonaavg 80.5¢	$868.52	$726.32	+$29.84	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 76¢	$461.34	$503.97	+$42.63	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
└ FC Barcelona leg	FC Barcelonaavg 76¢	$383.84	$386.47	+$2.63
└ Club Atlético de Madrid leg	Club Atlético de Madridavg 15.5¢	$77.5	$117.5	+$40
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	FC Barcelonaavg 88¢	$352	$350	-$2	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
DV dv-pmCTR	Club Atlético de Madridavg 11¢	$233.09	$243.69	+$10.6	48% 3587-3956 (7543)
FO forecastication4	FC Barcelonaavg 86¢	$200.1	$203.55	+$3.45	50% 1566-1572 (3138)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Club Atlético de Madridavg 25¢	$224.22	$201.8	-$22.42	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
MI MinevaJ	FC Barcelonaavg 85¢	$170	$180.38	+$14.97	56% 1205-933 (2138)
PA Pan9X	FC Barcelonaavg 83.2¢	$280.6	$149.17	+$15.91	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
VE VenusianCTR	Club Atlético de Madridavg 18.6¢	$308	$124.14	-$183.86	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
HI hi774cCTR	Club Atlético de Madridavg 12¢	$105.41	$110.2	+$4.79	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
NO NordhavenCapARB<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 82¢	$108.83	$95.71	-$6.03	56% 2667-2054 (4721)
└ FC Barcelona leg	FC Barcelonaavg 82¢	$57.92	$61.84	+$4.59
└ Club Atlético de Madrid leg	Club Atlético de Madridavg 16.5¢	$44.8	$33.87	-$10.62
SN SnakeBall<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 86.7¢	$96.31	$91.43	-$4.88	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Club Atlético de Madridavg 20.5¢	$73.6	$82.6	+$9	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
GH ghorrock<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 88¢	$84.03	$45.86	-$1.79	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
WA WagerWizard<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 93¢	$12.2	$11.48	-$0.72	71% 18402-7575 (25977)
RN1<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 92¢	$14.69	$10.73	-$3.96	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
SE sentrio<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 92¢	$4.6	$4.73	+$0.13	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Club Atlético de Madridavg 25¢	$10.93	$3.28	-$7.65	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Club Atlético de Madridavg 12¢	$0.99	$1.04	+$0.05	52% 1527-1404 (2931)

Flaznorp

FC Barcelona

Invested

$7,937.55

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$598.9

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

GoalLineGhost

FC Barcelona

Invested

$5,278.12

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$193.68

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

P1kaso

FC Barcelona

Invested

$1,305

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$7.5

Record

64%

1196-686 (1882)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Club Atlético de Madrid

Invested

$594.44

Value

$892.32

PnL

+$22.4

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

Both legs:

Club Atlético de Madrid$361.9413.1¢+$26.9

FC Barcelona$232.577.5¢-$4.5

38791873984189

FC Barcelona

Invested

$868.52

Value

$726.32

PnL

+$29.84

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Anon455ARB<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$461.34

Value

$503.97

PnL

+$42.63

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Both legs:

FC Barcelona$383.8476¢+$2.63

Club Atlético de Madrid$77.515.5¢+$40

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

FC Barcelona

Invested

$352

Value

$350

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

dv-pmCTR

Club Atlético de Madrid

Invested

$233.09

Value

$243.69

PnL

+$10.6

Record

48%

3587-3956 (7543)

forecastication4

FC Barcelona

Invested

$200.1

Value

$203.55

PnL

+$3.45

Record

50%

1566-1572 (3138)

MadridTimeCTR

Club Atlético de Madrid

Invested

$224.22

Value

$201.8

PnL

-$22.42

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

MinevaJ

FC Barcelona

Invested

$170

Value

$180.38

PnL

+$14.97

Record

56%

1205-933 (2138)

Pan9X

FC Barcelona

Invested

$280.6

Value

$149.17

PnL

+$15.91

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

VenusianCTR

Club Atlético de Madrid

Invested

$308

Value

$124.14

PnL

-$183.86

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

hi774cCTR

Club Atlético de Madrid

Invested

$105.41

Value

$110.2

PnL

+$4.79

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

NordhavenCapARB<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$108.83

Value

$95.71

PnL

-$6.03

Record

56%

2667-2054 (4721)

Both legs:

FC Barcelona$57.9282¢+$4.59

Club Atlético de Madrid$44.816.5¢-$10.62

SnakeBall<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$96.31

Value

$91.43

PnL

-$4.88

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

LimousinCTR<$100

Club Atlético de Madrid

Invested

$73.6

Value

$82.6

PnL

+$9

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

ghorrock<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$84.03

Value

$45.86

PnL

-$1.79

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

WagerWizard<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$12.2

Value

$11.48

PnL

-$0.72

Record

71%

18402-7575 (25977)

RN1<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$14.69

Value

$10.73

PnL

-$3.96

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

sentrio<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Club Atlético de Madrid

Invested

$10.93

Value

$3.28

PnL

-$7.65

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Club Atlético de Madrid

Invested

$0.99

Value

$1.04

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

1527-1404 (2931)

Research grade

NeutralFC Barcelona at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FC Barcelona

13 of 20 top traders (65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on FC Barcelona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClub Atlético de Madrid 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrFC Barcelona 50% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000FC Barcelona 57% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Barcelona wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.