Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Club Atlético de Madrid (73%) · Club Atlético de Madrid at 96¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Club Atlético de Madrid
11
Club Atlético de Madrid 73%
$15.5K
$957.03
86.7¢ → 96.1¢
+11% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralClub Atlético de Madrid at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Club Atlético de Madrid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Club Atlético de Madridavg 85.5¢ | $9.0K | $9.8K | +$842.98 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Club Atlético de Madridavg 89.4¢ | $4.3K | $4.4K | +$136.46 | 50% 32547-32694 (65241) |
SE sentrio | Club Atlético de Madridavg 84.2¢ | $322.91 | $320.32 | -$2.59 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
SN SnakeBall | Club Atlético de Madridavg 88.6¢ | $277.26 | $300.9 | +$23.64 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
 nigiri99CTR | FC Barcelonaavg 17.5¢ | $282.99 | $266.97 | -$16.02 | 45% 14423-17722 (32145) |
38 38791873984189 | Club Atlético de Madridavg 83.5¢ | $318.65 | $159.9 | -$17.05 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
WA WagerWizard | Club Atlético de Madridavg 93.7¢ | $121.68 | $124.85 | +$3.17 | 71% 18402-7575 (25977) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Club Atlético de Madridavg 83.8¢ | $96.61 | $97.48 | +$0.87 | 57% 24661-18268 (42929) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Club Atlético de Madridavg 83.9¢ | $86.73 | $47.44 | -$7.29 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | FC Barcelonaavg 15¢ | $9.11 | $2.7 | -$6.41 | 46% 30568-35672 (66240) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | FC Barcelonaavg 13¢ | $1.05 | $0.32 | -$0.73 | 48% 2081-2289 (4370) |
Invested
$8,950.55
Value
$9.8K
PnL
+$842.98
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$4,274.82
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$136.46
Record
50%
32547-32694 (65241)
Invested
$322.91
Value
$320.32
PnL
-$2.59
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
Invested
$277.26
Value
$300.9
PnL
+$23.64
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$282.99
Value
$266.97
PnL
-$16.02
Record
45%
14423-17722 (32145)
Invested
$318.65
Value
$159.9
PnL
-$17.05
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$121.68
Value
$124.85
PnL
+$3.17
Record
71%
18402-7575 (25977)
Invested
$96.61
Value
$97.48
PnL
+$0.87
Record
57%
24661-18268 (42929)
Invested
$86.73
Value
$47.44
PnL
-$7.29
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
Invested
$9.11
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$6.41
Record
46%
30568-35672 (66240)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.32
PnL
-$0.73
Record
48%
2081-2289 (4370)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
Club Atlético de Madrid — $9.8K
GoalLineGhost
Club Atlético de Madrid — $4.4K
sentrio
Club Atlético de Madrid — $320.32
SnakeBall
Club Atlético de Madrid — $300.9
nigiri99
CTRFC Barcelona — $266.97
38791873984189
Club Atlético de Madrid — $159.9
WagerWizard
Club Atlético de Madrid — $124.85
ghorrock
Club Atlético de Madrid — $97.48
Pan9X
Club Atlético de Madrid — $47.44
LuckyLoo
CTRFC Barcelona — $2.7