Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 0 - 3 FC Barcelona?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 8

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$4.07

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 96.3¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares4,938

Combined PnL+$7.8

Yes4 traders

Total Value$78.93

Total Shares2,128

Combined PnL-$3.73

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 95.5¢	$288.75	$1.9K	+$5.16	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 96.4¢	$98.26	$860.56	-$0.06	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 96¢	$581.07	$582.62	+$1.54	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 96.2¢	$500.48	$501.32	+$0.85	32% 21135-45368 (66503)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 96.3¢	$382.32	$382.16	-$0.16	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
NM NM-P	Noavg 96.3¢	$204.19	$196.02	+$0.2	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
GC GC-P	Noavg 96.2¢	$185.26	$177.85	-$0.26	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 95.9¢	$113.66	$114.23	+$0.57	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$85.44	$84.89	-$0.55	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$73.04	$69.91	-$3.13	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$54.16	$54.3	+$0.14	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 96¢	$118.07	$53.68	+$0.37	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$4.06	$4.01	-$0.05	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$4.17	$3.64	-$0.53	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$1.39	$1.37	-$0.02	50% 27934-27381 (55315)

SnakeBall

Invested

$288.75

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$5.16

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

MadridTime

Invested

$98.26

Value

$860.56

PnL

-$0.06

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

38791873984189

Invested

$581.07

Value

$582.62

PnL

+$1.54

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$500.48

Value

$501.32

PnL

+$0.85

Record

32%

21135-45368 (66503)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$382.32

Value

$382.16

PnL

-$0.16

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

NM-P

Invested

$204.19

Value

$196.02

PnL

+$0.2

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

GC-P

Invested

$185.26

Value

$177.85

PnL

-$0.26

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

ghorrock

Invested

$113.66

Value

$114.23

PnL

+$0.57

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$85.44

Value

$84.89

PnL

-$0.55

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.04

Value

$69.91

PnL

-$3.13

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$54.16

Value

$54.3

PnL

+$0.14

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Pan9X

Invested

$118.07

Value

$53.68

PnL

+$0.37

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.06

Value

$4.01

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.17

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$0.53

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.39

Value

$1.37

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.4%

96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.