Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 12 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD end in a draw?

12 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold No (52%) · No at 0.1¢ · $53K held · ended Nov 8

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 52%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$52.5K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 23 top traders (52%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$24.5K

Total Shares43,047

Combined PnL$-10.3K

Yes11 traders

Total Value$26.7K

Total Shares26,663

Combined PnL+$12.5K

No — 52%Yes — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 45.6¢	$13.0K	$12.0K	$-1.1K	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
LI Limousin	Yesavg 40.2¢	$4.8K	$11.9K	+$7.1K	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 46.3¢	$4.0K	$8.1K	+$4.0K	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 40.9¢	$4.2K	$5.5K	+$1.3K	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
AN Anon455CTR	Noavg 59.5¢	$9.3K	$4.8K	$-4.5K	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 93¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$106.41	50% 65477-65792 (131269)
nigiri99CTR	Noavg 74¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$185.3	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 48.4¢	$669.56	$1.4K	+$712.84	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
VE Venusian	Yesavg 74.5¢	$867.04	$1.1K	+$250.07	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
MA maxiplayer	Yesavg 86.1¢	$1.9K	$935.3	+$215.98	76% 776-250 (1026)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 73¢	$934.47	$743.91	-$36.65	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
└ No leg	Noavg 73¢	$416.1	$373.35	-$42.75
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.9¢	$278.51	$370.56	+$6.1
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Yesavg 87.5¢	$671.22	$725.93	+$54.72	53% 3744-3342 (7086)
RA rabbitfoot1	Yesavg 93¢	$667.74	$717.64	+$49.9	54% 1253-1074 (2327)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 73¢	$1.5K	$665.29	+$45.72	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26¢	$254.57	$337.79	+$83.22
└ No leg	Noavg 73¢	$365	$327.5	-$37.5
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Noavg 72.9¢	$868.12	$568.62	-$64.65	46% 1997-2348 (4345)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yesavg 91.3¢	$196.64	$190.34	-$6.31	53% 15485-13736 (29221)
dips.<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$88.36	$93.95	+$5.59	46% 12092-14003 (26095)
PT PT-S7CTR	Noavg 38.2¢	$1.1K	$89.14	-$875.89	46% 3487-4033 (7520)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Noavg 82¢	$68.73	$56.99	-$11.75	62% 2044-1240 (3284)
RN1CTR	Noavg 63.7¢	$2.3K	$46.8	$-2.3K	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
GA Gaditima<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$24.27	$19.9	-$4.37	47% 8628-9767 (18395)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Noavg 4.2¢	$2.82	$2.35	-$0.46	48% 5133-5658 (10791)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 46.4¢	$2.6K	$1.62	$-2.4K	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 28.3¢	$214	$0.38	-$213.62	46% 30568-35672 (66240)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$5.25	$0.01	-$5.24	52% 6045-5577 (11622)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$13,033.69

Value

$12.0K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$4,775.3

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$7.1K

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

LightParadox

Yes

Invested

$4,022.83

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$4,228.75

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

Anon455CTR

Invested

$9,313.45

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$1,423.96

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$106.41

Record

50%

65477-65792 (131269)

nigiri99CTR

Invested

$1,613.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$185.3

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$669.56

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$712.84

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$867.04

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$250.07

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

maxiplayer

Yes

Invested

$1,866.57

Value

$935.3

PnL

+$215.98

Record

76%

776-250 (1026)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$934.47

Value

$743.91

PnL

-$36.65

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

Both legs:

No$416.173¢-$42.75

Yes$278.5125.9¢+$6.1

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Yes

Invested

$671.22

Value

$725.93

PnL

+$54.72

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

rabbitfoot1

Yes

Invested

$667.74

Value

$717.64

PnL

+$49.9

Record

54%

1253-1074 (2327)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,479.1

Value

$665.29

PnL

+$45.72

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Both legs:

Yes$254.5726¢+$83.22

No$36573¢-$37.5

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Invested

$868.12

Value

$568.62

PnL

-$64.65

Record

46%

1997-2348 (4345)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yes

Invested

$196.64

Value

$190.34

PnL

-$6.31

Record

53%

15485-13736 (29221)

dips.<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.36

Value

$93.95

PnL

+$5.59

Record

46%

12092-14003 (26095)

PT-S7CTR

Invested

$1,094.46

Value

$89.14

PnL

-$875.89

Record

46%

3487-4033 (7520)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Invested

$68.73

Value

$56.99

PnL

-$11.75

Record

62%

2044-1240 (3284)

RN1CTR

Invested

$2,347.75

Value

$46.8

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Gaditima<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.27

Value

$19.9

PnL

-$4.37

Record

47%

8628-9767 (18395)

shiifooCTR<$100

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.46

Record

48%

5133-5658 (10791)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$2,590.12

Value

$1.62

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$214

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$213.62

Record

46%

30568-35672 (66240)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$5.25

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.24

Record

52%

6045-5577 (11622)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 23 top traders (52%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.