Keith Rabois Combo: Republicans win 5 (TX, IA, KS, AK, MI, OH)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
$52.58
92¢ → 99.6¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ifyouloveme | Noavg 92.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$104.39 | 52% 280-254 (534) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitARB<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $271.33 | $266.89 | -$9.77 | 41% 32-47 (79) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 92¢ | $204.24 | $210.9 | +$1.33 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $67.09 | $55.99 | -$11.1 | |
 bernardbulletin | Noavg 91¢ | $245.7 | $256.5 | +$4.05 | 69% 1027-456 (1483) |
 Nostdam<$100 | Noavg 93.2¢ | $93.42 | $95.27 | +$1.84 | 54% 1442-1239 (2681) |
88 881112<$100 | Noavg 88.7¢ | $47.6 | $50.97 | +$3.36 | 37% 574-981 (1555) |
LI linethCTR | Yesavg 8.5¢ | $66.71 | $45.57 | -$21.14 | 42% 254-350 (604) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.3¢ | $56.02 | $16.1 | -$39.93 | 53% 28755-25670 (54425) |
ifyoulovemeInvested
$1,430.1
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$104.39
Record
52%
280-254 (534)
Invested
$271.33
Value
$266.89
PnL
-$9.77
Record
41%
32-47 (79)
Both legs:
bernardbulletinInvested
$245.7
Value
$256.5
PnL
+$4.05
Record
69%
1027-456 (1483)
Nostdam<$100Invested
$93.42
Value
$95.27
PnL
+$1.84
Record
54%
1442-1239 (2681)
Invested
$47.6
Value
$50.97
PnL
+$3.36
Record
37%
574-981 (1555)
Invested
$66.71
Value
$45.57
PnL
-$21.14
Record
42%
254-350 (604)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$56.02
Value
$16.1
PnL
-$39.93
Record
53%
28755-25670 (54425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.