Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-11-07?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 59¢ · $38K held · ended Nov 7

Yes42¢No58¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.8K

Combined PnL

-$692.39

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 58.5¢

+11% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$12.6K

Total Shares24,148

Combined PnL-$130.74

Yes5 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares15,350

Combined PnL-$561.65

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 52.5¢	$12.1K	$12.0K	-$110.6	48% 205-222 (427)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 48.4¢	$8.4K	$9.3K	+$927.87	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
└ No leg	Noavg 48.4¢	$5.7K	$6.9K	+$1.2K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	-$264.99
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 47.7¢	$4.7K	$4.5K	-$195.55	50% 28862-28672 (57534)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.7¢	$2.9K	$2.5K	-$377.72
└ No leg	Noavg 53.3¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$182.17
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 49.2¢	$3.9K	$3.3K	-$603.23	49% 1790-1872 (3662)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Yesavg 49.2¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$72.04	45% 196-243 (439)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 49.2¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$123.92	49% 1756-1850 (3606)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$39.62	51% 38171-37411 (75582)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48¢	$670.52	$628.61	+$6.98
└ No leg	Noavg 52¢	$565.66	$598.3	+$32.63
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$870	$870	-$0	64% 10165-5759 (15924)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48¢	$480	$480	+$0
└ No leg	Noavg 52¢	$390	$390	-$0
NM NM-PARB<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$761.15	$761.84	+$0.69	64% 10163-5703 (15866)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48¢	$480	$480	+$0
└ No leg	Noavg 51.9¢	$281.15	$281.84	+$0.69
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Noavg 54¢	$688.27	$676.52	-$11.74	46% 1755-2052 (3807)
└ No leg	Noavg 54¢	$420.06	$455.38	+$35.33
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.3¢	$268.21	$221.14	-$47.07
LI LimousinARB<$100	Yesavg 49.2¢	$445.72	$407.51	-$38.21	50% 1808-1796 (3604)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.2¢	$313.84	$264.47	-$49.38
└ No leg	Noavg 53.9¢	$131.87	$143.04	+$11.16
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 54.2¢	$406.84	$390	-$16.84	51% 2045-1974 (4019)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Yesavg 49.2¢	$73.75	$69.64	-$4.12	84% 15044-2924 (17968)
RN1<$100	Noavg 55.6¢	$58.53	$60.54	+$2.01	53% 62226-54444 (116670)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 59.2¢	$59.22	$52	-$2.5	53% 2679-2359 (5038)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 55¢	$51.88	$49.05	-$2.83	50% 26346-25970 (52316)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 49.2¢	$39.34	$33.15	-$6.19	48% 1730-1861 (3591)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 50¢	$5.71	$5.94	+$0.23	51% 6508-6273 (12781)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$5.21	$5	-$0.21	52% 8958-8128 (17086)
RL RLWG<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.6	+$0	50% 8420-8457 (16877)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$12,110.53

Value

$12.0K

PnL

-$110.6

Record

48%

205-222 (427)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$8,412.57

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$927.87

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

Both legs:

No$5,701.4348.4¢+$1.2K

Yes$2,711.1446¢-$264.99

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,735.67

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$195.55

Record

50%

28862-28672 (57534)

Both legs:

Yes$2,887.547.7¢-$377.72

No$1,848.1753.3¢+$182.17

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,880.21

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$603.23

Record

49%

1790-1872 (3662)

glennyorkshireCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,842.85

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$72.04

Record

45%

196-243 (439)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,158.63

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$123.92

Record

49%

1756-1850 (3606)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,236.18

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$39.62

Record

51%

38171-37411 (75582)

Both legs:

Invested

$870

Value

$870

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

10165-5759 (15924)

Both legs:

Invested

$761.15

Value

$761.84

PnL

+$0.69

Record

64%

10163-5703 (15866)

Both legs:

Yes$48048¢+$0

No$281.1551.9¢+$0.69

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Invested

$688.27

Value

$676.52

PnL

-$11.74

Record

46%

1755-2052 (3807)

Both legs:

No$420.0654¢+$35.33

Yes$268.2150.3¢-$47.07

LimousinARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$445.72

Value

$407.51

PnL

-$38.21

Record

50%

1808-1796 (3604)

Both legs:

Yes$313.8449.2¢-$49.38

No$131.8753.9¢+$11.16

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$406.84

Value

$390

PnL

-$16.84

Record

51%

2045-1974 (4019)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.75

Value

$69.64

PnL

-$4.12

Record

84%

15044-2924 (17968)

RN1<$100

Invested

$58.53

Value

$60.54

PnL

+$2.01

Record

53%

62226-54444 (116670)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$59.22

Value

$52

PnL

-$2.5

Record

53%

2679-2359 (5038)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$51.88

Value

$49.05

PnL

-$2.83

Record

50%

26346-25970 (52316)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.34

Value

$33.15

PnL

-$6.19

Record

48%

1730-1861 (3591)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$5.71

Value

$5.94

PnL

+$0.23

Record

51%

6508-6273 (12781)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$5.21

Value

PnL

-$0.21

Record

52%

8958-8128 (17086)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

8420-8457 (16877)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.