Vegalta Sendai vs. Blaublitz Akita: O/U 3.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 67¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over34¢Under66¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$157.96

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 66.5¢

+42% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$896.65

Total Shares1,470

Combined PnL+$207.65

Over2 traders

Total Value$69.77

Total Shares240

Combined PnL-$49.7

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 56.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$25.35	49% 4509-4779 (9288)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.1¢	$688.1	$815.65	+$127.55
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.1¢	$635.45	$482.54	-$152.9
LI LightParadox	Underavg 44¢	$490.48	$719.18	+$228.7	37% 1279-2142 (3421)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 54.9¢	$94.42	$76.56	-$17.87	52% 2433-2206 (4639)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$95.23	$54.28	-$40.95	46% 3071-3598 (6669)
US User7429<$100	Underavg 58.9¢	$45.43	$41.24	-$4.19	43% 409-552 (961)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 50¢	$23.67	$23.9	+$0.24	41% 1150-1638 (2788)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Overavg 48.5¢	$24.24	$15.49	-$8.75	49% 222-228 (450)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 72¢	$12.86	$13.3	+$0.45	56% 630-495 (1125)
RN1<$100	Underavg 49¢	$9.61	$9.71	+$0.1	54% 5879-4932 (10811)
SM smithagent<$100	Underavg 65.5¢	$10.48	$9.04	-$1.44	46% 835-981 (1816)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 41¢	$2.05	$3.73	+$1.68	38% 1261-2087 (3348)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,323.55

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$25.35

Record

49%

4509-4779 (9288)

Both legs:

Over$688.156.1¢+$127.55

Under$635.4544.1¢-$152.9

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$490.48

Value

$719.18

PnL

+$228.7

Record

37%

1279-2142 (3421)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$94.42

Value

$76.56

PnL

-$17.87

Record

52%

2433-2206 (4639)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$95.23

Value

$54.28

PnL

-$40.95

Record

46%

3071-3598 (6669)

User7429<$100

Under

Invested

$45.43

Value

$41.24

PnL

-$4.19

Record

43%

409-552 (961)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$23.67

Value

$23.9

PnL

+$0.24

Record

41%

1150-1638 (2788)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.24

Value

$15.49

PnL

-$8.75

Record

49%

222-228 (450)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$12.86

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$0.45

Record

56%

630-495 (1125)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$9.61

Value

$9.71

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

5879-4932 (10811)

smithagent<$100

Under

Invested

$10.48

Value

$9.04

PnL

-$1.44

Record

46%

835-981 (1816)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$2.05

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$1.68

Record

38%

1261-2087 (3348)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.