Vegalta Sendai vs. Blaublitz Akita: Both Teams to Score
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 83¢ · $305 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
$304.66
-$7.9
51.5¢ → 82.5¢
+60% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 54.1¢ | $121.41 | $123.33 | +$1.92 | 49% 4509-4779 (9288) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $69.72 | $68.27 | -$1.45 | 39% 1485-2329 (3814) |
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.9¢ | $68.58 | $58.85 | -$9.73 | 49% 222-228 (450) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $11.08 | $12.77 | +$1.69 | 36% 609-1105 (1714) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $9.6 | $10.37 | +$0.77 | 38% 1289-2093 (3382) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $10.41 | $9.59 | -$0.82 | 53% 1770-1556 (3326) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $8.93 | $8.93 | +$0 | 38% 1284-2117 (3401) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 51.5¢ | $5.15 | $5.1 | -$0.05 | 48% 2431-2662 (5093) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $2.86 | $2.86 | +$0 | 38% 1261-2087 (3348) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $2.75 | +$0.05 | 41% 1150-1638 (2788) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $2.11 | $1.84 | -$0.27 | 54% 5879-4932 (10811) |
Invested
$121.41
Value
$123.33
PnL
+$1.92
Record
49%
4509-4779 (9288)
Invested
$69.72
Value
$68.27
PnL
-$1.45
Record
39%
1485-2329 (3814)
Invested
$68.58
Value
$58.85
PnL
-$9.73
Record
49%
222-228 (450)
Invested
$11.08
Value
$12.77
PnL
+$1.69
Record
36%
609-1105 (1714)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$10.37
PnL
+$0.77
Record
38%
1289-2093 (3382)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$10.41
Value
$9.59
PnL
-$0.82
Record
53%
1770-1556 (3326)
Invested
$8.93
Value
$8.93
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1284-2117 (3401)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$5.1
PnL
-$0.05
Record
48%
2431-2662 (5093)
Invested
$2.86
Value
$2.86
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1261-2087 (3348)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$0.05
Record
41%
1150-1638 (2788)
RN1<$100Invested
$2.11
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$0.27
Record
54%
5879-4932 (10811)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.