Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Iwaki FC: O/U 2.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$259.84

Smart Money Entry

40.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$432.66

Total Shares1,688

Combined PnL-$304.19

Over5 traders

Total Value$239.62

Total Shares253

Combined PnL+$44.35

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 52.2¢	$731.01	$950.23	+$219.22	52% 2433-2206 (4639)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.2¢	$507.5	$685.61	+$178.11
└ Under leg	Underavg 24.9¢	$223.51	$264.62	+$41.11
SU suntoriCTR	Underavg 52¢	$544.75	$256.99	-$281.56	46% 3071-3598 (6669)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 27.2¢	$169.08	$155.3	-$13.78	49% 4509-4779 (9288)
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 96¢	$105.12	$109.45	+$4.33	49% 222-228 (450)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 48¢	$48	$86	+$38	53% 1770-1556 (3326)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Overavg 99¢	$36.16	$35.8	-$0.37	99% 607-9 (616)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 18.4¢	$18.17	$14.82	-$3.35	47% 1150-1295 (2445)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 79¢	$4.49	$6.31	+$1.82	39% 1485-2329 (3814)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$9.57	$4.79	-$4.78	37% 1279-2142 (3421)
HY hydra1248<$100	Overavg 69¢	$1.5	$2.07	+$0.57	75% 217-73 (290)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$1.47	$0.76	-$0.71	54% 5879-4932 (10811)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$731.01

Value

$950.23

PnL

+$219.22

Record

52%

2433-2206 (4639)

Both legs:

Over$507.552.2¢+$178.11

Under$223.5124.9¢+$41.11

suntoriCTR

Under

Invested

$544.75

Value

$256.99

PnL

-$281.56

Record

46%

3071-3598 (6669)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$169.08

Value

$155.3

PnL

-$13.78

Record

49%

4509-4779 (9288)

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$105.12

Value

$109.45

PnL

+$4.33

Record

49%

222-228 (450)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$48

Value

$86

PnL

+$38

Record

53%

1770-1556 (3326)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Over

Invested

$36.16

Value

$35.8

PnL

-$0.37

Record

99%

607-9 (616)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.17

Value

$14.82

PnL

-$3.35

Record

47%

1150-1295 (2445)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$4.49

Value

$6.31

PnL

+$1.82

Record

39%

1485-2329 (3814)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.57

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$4.78

Record

37%

1279-2142 (3421)

hydra1248<$100

Over

Invested

$1.5

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.57

Record

75%

217-73 (290)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.47

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$0.71

Record

54%

5879-4932 (10811)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.