Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Shōnan Bellmāre win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 42¢ · $362 held · ended Nov 14

Yes59¢No41¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$362.27

Combined PnL

-$82.11

Smart Money Entry

75.7¢ → 41.5¢

-45% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$155.05

Total Shares340

Combined PnL-$102.62

Yes5 traders

Total Value$71.68

Total Shares231

Combined PnL+$20.51

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 45.5¢	$101.35	$135.55	+$34.2	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
└ No leg	Noavg 45.5¢	$59.56	$90.35	+$30.8
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.7¢	$41.79	$45.2	+$3.41
SU suntoriCTR	Noavg 78.3¢	$210.66	$106.26	-$104.4	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 76¢	$31.67	$28.33	-$3.33	56% 434-347 (781)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$19.07	$26.87	+$7.8	29% 307-753 (1060)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$11.62	$17.16	+$5.54	37% 909-1532 (2441)
KY Kyn008<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$11.32	$14.62	+$3.3	40% 139-209 (348)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$11.5	$13.8	+$5.9	48% 1953-2074 (4027)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$7.41	$11.48	+$4.07	48% 1031-1119 (2150)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 76¢	$7.44	$6.66	-$0.78	54% 2027-1761 (3788)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.55	-$0.2	38% 128-208 (336)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$101.35

Value

$135.55

PnL

+$34.2

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

Both legs:

No$59.5645.5¢+$30.8

Yes$41.7928.7¢+$3.41

suntoriCTR

Invested

$210.66

Value

$106.26

PnL

-$104.4

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$31.67

Value

$28.33

PnL

-$3.33

Record

56%

434-347 (781)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.07

Value

$26.87

PnL

+$7.8

Record

29%

307-753 (1060)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.62

Value

$17.16

PnL

+$5.54

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

Kyn008<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.32

Value

$14.62

PnL

+$3.3

Record

40%

139-209 (348)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$13.8

PnL

+$5.9

Record

48%

1953-2074 (4027)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.41

Value

$11.48

PnL

+$4.07

Record

48%

1031-1119 (2150)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$7.44

Value

$6.66

PnL

-$0.78

Record

54%

2027-1761 (3788)

WagerWizard<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$0.2

Record

38%

128-208 (336)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.