Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 2.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $735 held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$735.11

Combined PnL

$77.15

Smart Money Entry

33.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$356.12

Total Shares844

Combined PnL+$72.41

Over3 traders

Total Value$324.59

Total Shares346

Combined PnL+$4.74

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 35.7¢	$243.74	$310.49	+$66.76	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$198	$199	+$1	98% 429-7 (436)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 95.7¢	$83.76	$87.5	+$3.74	38% 128-208 (336)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 43.4¢	$66.92	$54.39	-$12.53	54% 2027-1761 (3788)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.4¢	$44.33	$28.58	-$15.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 63¢	$22.59	$25.81	+$3.23
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 65¢	$38.09	$38.09	+$0	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 32.7¢	$19.6	$19.2	-$0.4	48% 1953-2074 (4027)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$13.26	$11.47	-$1.79	43% 949-1283 (2232)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 26.5¢	$4.83	$7.21	+$2.38	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$1.4	$4.34	+$2.94	37% 909-1532 (2441)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$0.88	$3.41	+$2.53	44% 749-938 (1687)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$243.74

Value

$310.49

PnL

+$66.76

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$198

Value

$199

PnL

+$1

Record

98%

429-7 (436)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$83.76

Value

$87.5

PnL

+$3.74

Record

38%

128-208 (336)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$66.92

Value

$54.39

PnL

-$12.53

Record

54%

2027-1761 (3788)

Both legs:

Under$44.3343.4¢-$15.75

Over$22.5963¢+$3.23

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$38.09

Value

$38.09

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.6

Value

$19.2

PnL

-$0.4

Record

48%

1953-2074 (4027)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.26

Value

$11.47

PnL

-$1.79

Record

43%

949-1283 (2232)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.83

Value

$7.21

PnL

+$2.38

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.4

Value

$4.34

PnL

+$2.94

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.88

Value

$3.41

PnL

+$2.53

Record

44%

749-938 (1687)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.