Will Tochigi City FC win on 2026-11-14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 99¢ · $458 held · ended Nov 14

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$458.09

Combined PnL

$121.92

Smart Money Entry

65.2¢ → 99.4¢

+52% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$385.09

Total Shares410

Combined PnL+$103.22

No3 traders

Total Value$72.99

Total Shares187

Combined PnL+$18.7

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 62.2¢	$222.41	$328.54	+$106.13	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$45.45	$64.32	+$18.87	54% 2027-1761 (3788)
Secondhandvinyl<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$37.2	$37	-$0.2	74% 210-75 (285)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Yesavg 96¢	$10.37	$10.53	+$0.16	38% 128-208 (336)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 9.7¢	$6.09	$5	-$1.09	37% 872-1456 (2328)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$4.2	$3.9	-$0.3	43% 933-1261 (2194)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$3.85	$3.83	-$0.02	49% 1915-2022 (3937)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$2.75	$3.67	+$0.92	48% 1029-1117 (2146)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$3.85	$1.3	-$2.55	12% 43-330 (373)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$222.41

Value

$328.54

PnL

+$106.13

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$45.45

Value

$64.32

PnL

+$18.87

Record

54%

2027-1761 (3788)

Secondhandvinyl<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.2

Value

$37

PnL

-$0.2

Record

74%

210-75 (285)

WagerWizard<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.37

Value

$10.53

PnL

+$0.16

Record

38%

128-208 (336)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$6.09

Value

PnL

-$1.09

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.2

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.3

Record

43%

933-1261 (2194)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.83

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

1915-2022 (3937)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$0.92

Record

48%

1029-1117 (2146)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.85

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$2.55

Record

12%

43-330 (373)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.