Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-11-14?

6 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $30K held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.3K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 99.5¢

+92% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 18 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$23.9K

Total Shares24,317

Combined PnL+$11.3K

Yes12 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares24,291

Combined PnL$-8.7K

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-44 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BL Bloodygoodrep1	Noavg 51.8¢	$12.6K	$23.9K	+$11.3K	0% 0-33 (33)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 46.6¢	$7.5K	$2.4K	$-5.1K	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 45.9¢	$5.0K	$1.9K	$-3.1K	54% 2027-1761 (3788)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$852.36	$852.36	+$0	40% 110-166 (276)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Yesavg 49¢	$576.75	$289.61	-$287.13	34% 349-676 (1025)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 50.5¢	$479.86	$262.15	-$217.71	37% 872-1456 (2328)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.5¢	$403.99	$188	-$215.99
└ No leg	Noavg 78.3¢	$75.87	$74.16	-$1.71
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 48.5¢	$274.18	$192.27	+$0.24	54% 1217-1056 (2273)
dips.CTR	Yesavg 50¢	$246.06	$93.5	-$152.56	47% 899-997 (1896)
DA DanielsDixonCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$82.56	$92.16	+$9.6	15% 11-60 (71)
poshposhCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$161.44	$82.66	-$78.78	48% 1029-1117 (2146)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Yesavg 48¢	$107.03	$56.13	-$50.9	49% 1915-2022 (3937)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$48	$48	+$0	56% 434-347 (781)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$49.14	$26.84	-$22.3	45% 731-911 (1642)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 70¢	$23.45	$24.13	+$0.67	44% 346-448 (794)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$12.08	$11.66	-$0.43	29% 306-750 (1056)
KY Kyn008<$100	Noavg 49¢	$9.8	$10.4	+$0.6	40% 139-209 (348)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 54¢	$9.9	$9.53	-$0.37	36% 896-1591 (2487)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 54¢	$8.95	$8.62	-$0.33	37% 937-1581 (2518)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$4.76	$0.89	-$3.87	45% 2387-2862 (5249)

Bloodygoodrep1

Invested

$12,553.09

Value

$23.9K

PnL

+$11.3K

Record

0-33 (33)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,497.97

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-5.1K

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,015.85

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

54%

2027-1761 (3788)

mouzsynapseCTR

Yes

Invested

$852.36

Value

$852.36

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

110-166 (276)

SlickRick123CTR

Yes

Invested

$576.75

Value

$289.61

PnL

-$287.13

Record

34%

349-676 (1025)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$479.86

Value

$262.15

PnL

-$217.71

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

Both legs:

Yes$403.9950.5¢-$215.99

No$75.8778.3¢-$1.71

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$274.18

Value

$192.27

PnL

+$0.24

Record

54%

1217-1056 (2273)

dips.CTR

Yes

Invested

$246.06

Value

$93.5

PnL

-$152.56

Record

47%

899-997 (1896)

DanielsDixonCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.56

Value

$92.16

PnL

+$9.6

Record

15%

11-60 (71)

poshposhCTR

Yes

Invested

$161.44

Value

$82.66

PnL

-$78.78

Record

48%

1029-1117 (2146)

ferdinand2CTR

Yes

Invested

$107.03

Value

$56.13

PnL

-$50.9

Record

49%

1915-2022 (3937)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48

Value

$48

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

434-347 (781)

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.14

Value

$26.84

PnL

-$22.3

Record

45%

731-911 (1642)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$23.45

Value

$24.13

PnL

+$0.67

Record

44%

346-448 (794)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$12.08

Value

$11.66

PnL

-$0.43

Record

29%

306-750 (1056)

Kyn008<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$0.6

Record

40%

139-209 (348)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$9.53

PnL

-$0.37

Record

36%

896-1591 (2487)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$8.95

Value

$8.62

PnL

-$0.33

Record

37%

937-1581 (2518)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$3.87

Record

45%

2387-2862 (5249)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 18 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-44 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.