Kataller Toyama vs. Tokushima Vortis: O/U 2.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$380.75

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 100¢

+38% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,913

Combined PnL+$71.85

Under8 traders

Total Value$607.74

Total Shares3,232

Combined PnL-$452.6

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
95 95de	Overavg 75¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$15	62% 18-11 (29)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 62.7¢	$993.75	$1.1K	+$143.14	52% 2433-2208 (4641)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62.7¢	$569.74	$668.14	+$98.4
└ Under leg	Underavg 24¢	$424.01	$468.75	+$44.74
RN1	Overavg 62¢	$580.6	$626.36	+$45.77	54% 5924-4982 (10906)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 26.1¢	$1.1K	$598.78	-$44.82	49% 4528-4804 (9332)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 94.3¢	$51.79	$54.91	+$3.12	49% 222-228 (450)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 59¢	$26.09	$34.05	+$7.96	46% 3088-3615 (6703)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 19.6¢	$8.88	$6.8	-$2.08	39% 1498-2355 (3853)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$1.88	$1.35	-$0.53	36% 611-1105 (1716)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 25¢	$339.04	$0.68	-$338.36	37% 1288-2159 (3447)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 25.9¢	$24.18	$0.05	-$24.13	38% 1297-2114 (3411)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 24.8¢	$16.87	$0.03	-$16.83	38% 1272-2102 (3374)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$11.43	$0.02	-$11.41	38% 1296-2132 (3428)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$14.45	$0.02	-$14.43	48% 2449-2682 (5131)

95de

Over

Invested

$2,250

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$15

Record

62%

18-11 (29)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$993.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$143.14

Record

52%

2433-2208 (4641)

Both legs:

Over$569.7462.7¢+$98.4

Under$424.0124¢+$44.74

RN1

Over

Invested

$580.6

Value

$626.36

PnL

+$45.77

Record

54%

5924-4982 (10906)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,096.63

Value

$598.78

PnL

-$44.82

Record

49%

4528-4804 (9332)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$51.79

Value

$54.91

PnL

+$3.12

Record

49%

222-228 (450)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$26.09

Value

$34.05

PnL

+$7.96

Record

46%

3088-3615 (6703)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.88

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$2.08

Record

39%

1498-2355 (3853)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.88

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.53

Record

36%

611-1105 (1716)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$339.04

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$338.36

Record

37%

1288-2159 (3447)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.18

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$24.13

Record

38%

1297-2114 (3411)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.87

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$16.83

Record

38%

1272-2102 (3374)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.43

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$11.41

Record

38%

1296-2132 (3428)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.45

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$14.43

Record

48%

2449-2682 (5131)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.