Will Tokushima Vortis win on 2026-11-15?

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (41%) · Yes at 85¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 15

Yes85¢No15¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 41%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

-$729.81

Smart Money Entry

85.9¢ → 85¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 17 top traders (41%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$15.8K

Total Shares18,154

Combined PnL+$156.95

No10 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares20,667

Combined PnL-$886.76

Yes — 41%No — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x7d3b7ff761d046f5dc1d972e8a755dc1eccf55b8	Yesavg 88.6¢	$12.6K	$12.0K	-$585.81	79% 22-6 (28)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 76.4¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$730.81	52% 2433-2208 (4641)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 75.1¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$42.74	49% 4528-4804 (9332)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 75.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$148.59
└ No leg	Noavg 17.9¢	$1.0K	$901.44	-$105.86
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 11.4¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$115.94	47% 1159-1312 (2471)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 17.8¢	$387.06	$380.45	-$6.62	36% 611-1105 (1716)
RN1CTR	Noavg 16.3¢	$1.2K	$234.19	-$966.13	54% 5924-4982 (10906)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 13¢	$133.43	$158.34	+$24.91	39% 1498-2355 (3853)
└ No leg	Noavg 13¢	$81.51	$110.01	+$28.51
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 88.6¢	$51.92	$48.33	-$3.59
SP spyGoodLuck77ARB<$100	Yesavg 40.4¢	$52.75	$100	+$60.44	16% 69-350 (419)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.4¢	$29.18	$61.11	+$38.71
└ No leg	Noavg 6.8¢	$17.15	$38.89	+$21.74
Secondhandvinyl<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$66.37	$67.57	+$1.2	77% 370-108 (478)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Noavg 16.7¢	$83.46	$67.5	-$15.96	50% 1055-1041 (2096)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 15.1¢	$23.2	$23.74	+$0.54	38% 1297-2114 (3411)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 80.9¢	$30.41	$21.66	+$1.12	46% 3088-3615 (6703)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 22.4¢	$20.58	$14.71	-$5.87	38% 1296-2132 (3428)
HY hydra1248<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$3.49	$12.69	+$9.2	75% 220-74 (294)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 21.6¢	$10.11	$7.51	-$2.6	38% 1272-2102 (3374)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$6.11	$5.74	-$0.36	49% 222-228 (450)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$4.2	$5	+$0.8	45% 440-539 (979)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$3.74	$3.47	-$0.28	45% 935-1121 (2056)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 73¢	$7.68	$3.04	-$4.64	33% 441-879 (1320)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 32.5¢	$3.25	$2.1	-$1.15	48% 2449-2682 (5131)

0x7d3b7ff761d046f5dc1d972e8a755dc1eccf55b8

Yes

Invested

$12,560

Value

$12.0K

PnL

-$585.81

Record

79%

22-6 (28)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$3,497.73

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$730.81

Record

52%

2433-2208 (4641)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,263.53

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$42.74

Record

49%

4528-4804 (9332)

Both legs:

Yes$1,256.2375.1¢+$148.59

No$1,007.317.9¢-$105.86

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$1,184.79

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$115.94

Record

47%

1159-1312 (2471)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$387.06

Value

$380.45

PnL

-$6.62

Record

36%

611-1105 (1716)

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,200.32

Value

$234.19

PnL

-$966.13

Record

54%

5924-4982 (10906)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$133.43

Value

$158.34

PnL

+$24.91

Record

39%

1498-2355 (3853)

Both legs:

No$81.5113¢+$28.51

Yes$51.9288.6¢-$3.59

spyGoodLuck77ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.75

Value

$100

PnL

+$60.44

Record

16%

69-350 (419)

Both legs:

Yes$29.1840.4¢+$38.71

No$17.156.8¢+$21.74

Secondhandvinyl<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.37

Value

$67.57

PnL

+$1.2

Record

77%

370-108 (478)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Invested

$83.46

Value

$67.5

PnL

-$15.96

Record

50%

1055-1041 (2096)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$23.2

Value

$23.74

PnL

+$0.54

Record

38%

1297-2114 (3411)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.41

Value

$21.66

PnL

+$1.12

Record

46%

3088-3615 (6703)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$20.58

Value

$14.71

PnL

-$5.87

Record

38%

1296-2132 (3428)

hydra1248<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.49

Value

$12.69

PnL

+$9.2

Record

75%

220-74 (294)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$10.11

Value

$7.51

PnL

-$2.6

Record

38%

1272-2102 (3374)

WagerWizard<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.11

Value

$5.74

PnL

-$0.36

Record

49%

222-228 (450)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.2

Value

PnL

+$0.8

Record

45%

440-539 (979)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$3.74

Value

$3.47

PnL

-$0.28

Record

45%

935-1121 (2056)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$7.68

Value

$3.04

PnL

-$4.64

Record

33%

441-879 (1320)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$1.15

Record

48%

2449-2682 (5131)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 17 top traders (41%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.