Will Kataller Toyama win on 2026-11-15?

20 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 80¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 15

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 87%

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

$333.48

Smart Money Entry

45.7¢ → 79.5¢

+74% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 23 top traders (87%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No20 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares14,535

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares8,310

Combined PnL$-2.8K

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 44.5¢	$2.6K	$3.9K	+$1.3K	54% 5879-4932 (10811)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 46.2¢	$2.3K	$3.8K	+$1.5K	49% 4509-4779 (9288)
0X 0x7d3b7ff761d046f5dc1d972e8a755dc1eccf55b8CTR	Yesavg 55.9¢	$4.4K	$1.7K	$-2.7K	79% 22-6 (28)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 45¢	$896.38	$921.78	+$25.4	52% 2433-2206 (4639)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Noavg 49.1¢	$496.55	$637.5	+$140.95	17% 69-349 (418)
WA WagerWizard	Noavg 49¢	$139.26	$179.05	+$39.79	49% 222-228 (450)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 46.2¢	$98.14	$154.12	+$55.99	37% 1279-2142 (3421)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 46.3¢	$140.35	$128.91	-$11.44	39% 1485-2329 (3814)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 55.1¢	$115.69	$101.89	-$13.8	46% 3071-3598 (6669)
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 43.2¢	$47.52	$65.45	+$17.93	46% 925-1106 (2031)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 46.7¢	$54.72	$56.28	+$1.56	47% 1150-1295 (2445)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR	Yesavg 55¢	$113.35	$46.37	-$66.98	54% 14-12 (26)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 51.5¢	$39.4	$37.12	-$2.28	37% 468-798 (1266)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 73¢	$28.77	$31.33	+$2.56	38% 1284-2117 (3401)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 42.4¢	$10.6	$14.88	+$4.27	45% 438-536 (974)
SM smithagent<$100	Noavg 46¢	$11.5	$14.88	+$3.38	46% 835-981 (1816)
dips.<$100	Noavg 46¢	$11.04	$14.28	+$3.24	48% 1236-1313 (2549)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 44¢	$12.88	$13.32	+$0.44	33% 441-877 (1318)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 46.7¢	$7.62	$7.35	-$0.28	41% 1150-1638 (2788)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 45¢	$5.22	$5.22	+$0	36% 609-1105 (1714)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 53¢	$3.49	$3.46	-$0.03	38% 1289-2093 (3382)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.25	-$0.05	48% 2431-2662 (5093)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 44¢	$23.64	$2.22	+$0.54	53% 1770-1556 (3326)

RN1

Invested

$2,580.45

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

54%

5879-4932 (10811)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,267.78

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

49%

4509-4779 (9288)

0x7d3b7ff761d046f5dc1d972e8a755dc1eccf55b8CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,415

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

79%

22-6 (28)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$896.38

Value

$921.78

PnL

+$25.4

Record

52%

2433-2206 (4639)

spyGoodLuck77

Invested

$496.55

Value

$637.5

PnL

+$140.95

Record

17%

69-349 (418)

WagerWizard

Invested

$139.26

Value

$179.05

PnL

+$39.79

Record

49%

222-228 (450)

LightParadox

Invested

$98.14

Value

$154.12

PnL

+$55.99

Record

37%

1279-2142 (3421)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$140.35

Value

$128.91

PnL

-$11.44

Record

39%

1485-2329 (3814)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$115.69

Value

$101.89

PnL

-$13.8

Record

46%

3071-3598 (6669)

lryyy<$100

Invested

$47.52

Value

$65.45

PnL

+$17.93

Record

46%

925-1106 (2031)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$54.72

Value

$56.28

PnL

+$1.56

Record

47%

1150-1295 (2445)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR

Yes

Invested

$113.35

Value

$46.37

PnL

-$66.98

Record

54%

14-12 (26)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$39.4

Value

$37.12

PnL

-$2.28

Record

37%

468-798 (1266)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$28.77

Value

$31.33

PnL

+$2.56

Record

38%

1284-2117 (3401)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$10.6

Value

$14.88

PnL

+$4.27

Record

45%

438-536 (974)

smithagent<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$14.88

PnL

+$3.38

Record

46%

835-981 (1816)

dips.<$100

Invested

$11.04

Value

$14.28

PnL

+$3.24

Record

48%

1236-1313 (2549)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$12.88

Value

$13.32

PnL

+$0.44

Record

33%

441-877 (1318)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$7.62

Value

$7.35

PnL

-$0.28

Record

41%

1150-1638 (2788)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$5.22

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

609-1105 (1714)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$3.49

Value

$3.46

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

1289-2093 (3382)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

2431-2662 (5093)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$23.64

Value

$2.22

PnL

+$0.54

Record

53%

1770-1556 (3326)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 23 top traders (87%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.