Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Kataller Toyama vs. Tokushima Vortis: 1st Half O/U 1.5
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $732 held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 44%
$731.53
-$277.73
67.4¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 28.5¢ | $207.15 | $646.29 | +$439.14 | 49% 4528-4804 (9332) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $69.77 | $41.04 | -$28.73 | 37% 1288-2159 (3447) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $33.25 | $19 | -$14.25 | 38% 1297-2114 (3411) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $21.59 | $12.7 | -$8.89 | 48% 2449-2682 (5131) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 19¢ | $2.28 | $11.99 | +$9.71 | 36% 611-1105 (1716) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 63.7¢ | $336.43 | $0.26 | -$336.17 | 54% 5924-4982 (10906) |
DA dashattackerCTR | Underavg 80¢ | $198.4 | $0.12 | -$198.28 | 65% 342-187 (529) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 61.7¢ | $92.5 | $0.08 | -$92.43 | 53% 1793-1578 (3371) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 63¢ | $47.88 | $0.04 | -$47.84 | 56% 631-497 (1128) |
Invested
$207.15
Value
$646.29
PnL
+$439.14
Record
49%
4528-4804 (9332)
Invested
$69.77
Value
$41.04
PnL
-$28.73
Record
37%
1288-2159 (3447)
Invested
$33.25
Value
$19
PnL
-$14.25
Record
38%
1297-2114 (3411)
Invested
$21.59
Value
$12.7
PnL
-$8.89
Record
48%
2449-2682 (5131)
Invested
$2.28
Value
$11.99
PnL
+$9.71
Record
36%
611-1105 (1716)
RN1CTRInvested
$336.43
Value
$0.26
PnL
-$336.17
Record
54%
5924-4982 (10906)
Invested
$198.4
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$198.28
Record
65%
342-187 (529)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$92.5
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$92.43
Record
53%
1793-1578 (3371)
Invested
$47.88
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$47.84
Record
56%
631-497 (1128)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.