Will Kataller Toyama vs. Tokushima Vortis end in a draw?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 86¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$137.1

Smart Money Entry

85.5¢ → 86¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,420

Combined PnL-$134.91

Yes6 traders

Total Value$132.44

Total Shares1,122

Combined PnL-$2.19

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 84.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$117.93	52% 2433-2208 (4641)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 87¢	$826.56	$808.2	-$18.36	49% 4528-4804 (9332)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$49.42	$82.89	+$33.47	38% 1297-2114 (3411)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$80.69	$42.56	-$38.13	37% 1288-2159 (3447)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 85.5¢	$22.29	$23.86	+$1.58	39% 1498-2355 (3853)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 92¢	$4.6	$4.33	-$0.27	38% 3781-6151 (9932)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 74¢	$3.7	$3.78	+$0.07	48% 2449-2682 (5131)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1.58	$2.66	+$1.08	16% 69-350 (419)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.9	$1.95	+$1.05	54% 5924-4982 (10906)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1	$1.69	+$0.69	38% 1296-2132 (3428)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.04	$0.69	-$0.35	46% 3088-3615 (6703)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,228.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$117.93

Record

52%

2433-2208 (4641)

Flaznorp

Invested

$826.56

Value

$808.2

PnL

-$18.36

Record

49%

4528-4804 (9332)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.42

Value

$82.89

PnL

+$33.47

Record

38%

1297-2114 (3411)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.69

Value

$42.56

PnL

-$38.13

Record

37%

1288-2159 (3447)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$22.29

Value

$23.86

PnL

+$1.58

Record

39%

1498-2355 (3853)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.33

PnL

-$0.27

Record

38%

3781-6151 (9932)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

2449-2682 (5131)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.58

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$1.08

Record

16%

69-350 (419)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$1.95

PnL

+$1.05

Record

54%

5924-4982 (10906)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.69

PnL

+$0.69

Record

38%

1296-2132 (3428)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$0.35

Record

46%

3088-3615 (6703)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.