Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Imabari vs. Júbilo Iwata: O/U 0.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $90 held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$90.29

Combined PnL

-$437.02

Smart Money Entry

7.6¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$62.3

Total Shares62

Combined PnL+$0.28

Under7 traders

Total Value$27.99

Total Shares6,149

Combined PnL-$437.29

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Overavg 99.1¢	$31.43	$31.7	+$0.27	83% 921-190 (1111)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$29.09	$29.11	+$0.01	38% 3779-6149 (9928)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$19.69	$24.59	+$4.91	47% 1150-1295 (2445)
HY hydra1248<$100	Overavg 95¢	$1.5	$1.49	-$0.01	75% 217-73 (290)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 7.8¢	$174.35	$1.11	-$173.24	49% 4509-4779 (9288)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 7.3¢	$157.79	$1.09	-$156.71	52% 2433-2206 (4639)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$96.97	$0.61	-$96.36	38% 1284-2117 (3401)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$0.46	$0.49	+$0.03	36% 609-1105 (1714)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$8.95	$0.06	-$8.89	38% 1289-2093 (3382)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$7.07	$0.04	-$7.03	48% 2431-2662 (5093)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Over

Invested

$31.43

Value

$31.7

PnL

+$0.27

Record

83%

921-190 (1111)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Over

Invested

$29.09

Value

$29.11

PnL

+$0.01

Record

38%

3779-6149 (9928)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.69

Value

$24.59

PnL

+$4.91

Record

47%

1150-1295 (2445)

hydra1248<$100

Over

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$0.01

Record

75%

217-73 (290)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$174.35

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$173.24

Record

49%

4509-4779 (9288)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$157.79

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$156.71

Record

52%

2433-2206 (4639)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$96.97

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$96.36

Record

38%

1284-2117 (3401)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.49

PnL

+$0.03

Record

36%

609-1105 (1714)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.95

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$8.89

Record

38%

1289-2093 (3382)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.07

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.03

Record

48%

2431-2662 (5093)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.