Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Sagan Tosu: O/U 2.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$177.09

Smart Money Entry

44.8¢ → 100¢

+123% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$925.06

Total Shares1,839

Combined PnL+$71.35

Under7 traders

Total Value$664.61

Total Shares1,211

Combined PnL+$105.74

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 56.9¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$79.24	49% 4509-4779 (9288)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.9¢	$805.75	$714.66	-$91.09
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$383.63	$395.49	+$11.85
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 42.3¢	$745.95	$810.65	+$64.7	52% 2433-2206 (4639)
SU suntoriCTR	Underavg 47¢	$476.19	$582.57	+$106.38	46% 3071-3598 (6669)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 94.9¢	$76.08	$80.15	+$4.07	49% 222-228 (450)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 50.6¢	$58.64	$56.28	-$2.36	54% 5879-4932 (10811)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 49¢	$17.32	$18.73	+$1.41	37% 1279-2142 (3421)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 49¢	$14.36	$15.53	+$1.17	38% 1284-2117 (3401)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$9.02	$8.48	-$0.54	53% 1770-1556 (3326)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$5.5	$4.7	-$0.8	48% 2431-2662 (5093)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 18.3¢	$4.45	$4.38	-$0.07	39% 1485-2329 (3814)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$3.96	$4.23	+$0.27	47% 1150-1295 (2445)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$1.1	$3.96	+$2.86	46% 925-1106 (2031)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,189.38

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$79.24

Record

49%

4509-4779 (9288)

Both legs:

Under$805.7556.9¢-$91.09

Over$383.6348¢+$11.85

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$745.95

Value

$810.65

PnL

+$64.7

Record

52%

2433-2206 (4639)

suntoriCTR

Under

Invested

$476.19

Value

$582.57

PnL

+$106.38

Record

46%

3071-3598 (6669)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$76.08

Value

$80.15

PnL

+$4.07

Record

49%

222-228 (450)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$58.64

Value

$56.28

PnL

-$2.36

Record

54%

5879-4932 (10811)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$17.32

Value

$18.73

PnL

+$1.41

Record

37%

1279-2142 (3421)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$14.36

Value

$15.53

PnL

+$1.17

Record

38%

1284-2117 (3401)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.02

Value

$8.48

PnL

-$0.54

Record

53%

1770-1556 (3326)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.5

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0.8

Record

48%

2431-2662 (5093)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.38

PnL

-$0.07

Record

39%

1485-2329 (3814)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.96

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$0.27

Record

47%

1150-1295 (2445)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.1

Value

$3.96

PnL

+$2.86

Record

46%

925-1106 (2031)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.