Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Sagan Tosu: O/U 1.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$99.91

Smart Money Entry

29.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$225.55

Total Shares245

Combined PnL+$12.31

Under6 traders

Total Value$76.01

Total Shares640

Combined PnL-$112.22

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 81.8¢	$1.1K	$994.46	-$77.88	52% 2433-2206 (4639)
└ Over leg	Overavg 81.8¢	$888.88	$695.31	-$193.57
└ Under leg	Underavg 22.1¢	$183.45	$299.14	+$115.7
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 73.8¢	$689.96	$765.96	+$76	49% 4509-4779 (9288)
└ Over leg	Overavg 73.8¢	$493.6	$387.71	-$105.9
└ Under leg	Underavg 21.8¢	$196.36	$378.25	+$181.89
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 95.6¢	$91.2	$95.37	+$4.17	49% 222-228 (450)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 73¢	$73	$83	+$10	53% 1770-1556 (3326)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$93.92	$59.14	-$34.79	38% 1284-2117 (3401)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Overavg 99¢	$47.52	$45.6	-$1.92	99% 607-9 (616)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 34.6¢	$10.27	$10.24	-$0.03	37% 1279-2142 (3421)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$3.51	$3.58	+$0.07	54% 5879-4932 (10811)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$1.42	$1.77	+$0.35	39% 1485-2329 (3814)
HY hydra1248<$100	Overavg 73¢	$1.52	$1.58	+$0.06	75% 217-73 (290)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 20.2¢	$1.4	$1.18	-$0.22	47% 1150-1295 (2445)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 37.6¢	$77.71	$0.1	-$77.61	38% 1289-2093 (3382)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,072.33

Value

$994.46

PnL

-$77.88

Record

52%

2433-2206 (4639)

Both legs:

Over$888.8881.8¢-$193.57

Under$183.4522.1¢+$115.7

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$689.96

Value

$765.96

PnL

+$76

Record

49%

4509-4779 (9288)

Both legs:

Over$493.673.8¢-$105.9

Under$196.3621.8¢+$181.89

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$91.2

Value

$95.37

PnL

+$4.17

Record

49%

222-228 (450)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$73

Value

$83

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

1770-1556 (3326)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$93.92

Value

$59.14

PnL

-$34.79

Record

38%

1284-2117 (3401)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Over

Invested

$47.52

Value

$45.6

PnL

-$1.92

Record

99%

607-9 (616)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.27

Value

$10.24

PnL

-$0.03

Record

37%

1279-2142 (3421)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$0.07

Record

54%

5879-4932 (10811)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$0.35

Record

39%

1485-2329 (3814)

hydra1248<$100

Over

Invested

$1.52

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$0.06

Record

75%

217-73 (290)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$0.22

Record

47%

1150-1295 (2445)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$77.71

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$77.61

Record

38%

1289-2093 (3382)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.