Will Sagan Tosu win on 2026-11-14?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$1.0K
-$34.86
54¢ → 52¢
-4% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
50h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 54.4¢ | $887.75 | $849.3 | -$38.46 | 49% 4276-4505 (8781) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $74.63 | $75.34 | +$0.72 | 59% 3861-2655 (6516) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $36.32 | $34.97 | -$1.35 | 41% 1104-1559 (2663) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 51.5¢ | $19.07 | $19.26 | +$0.19 | 38% 1162-1897 (3059) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 51.1¢ | $17.03 | $17.34 | +$0.31 | 37% 1136-1943 (3079) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $14.8 | $15.09 | +$0.29 | 37% 1136-1917 (3053) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $8 | $11.4 | +$3.4 | 38% 3735-6037 (9772) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $10.17 | $10.27 | +$0.1 | 40% 453-675 (1128) |
BI biying99999<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $3.32 | $3.26 | -$0.06 | 37% 126-214 (340) |
Invested
$887.75
Value
$849.3
PnL
-$38.46
Record
49%
4276-4505 (8781)
Invested
$74.63
Value
$75.34
PnL
+$0.72
Record
59%
3861-2655 (6516)
Invested
$36.32
Value
$34.97
PnL
-$1.35
Record
41%
1104-1559 (2663)
Invested
$19.07
Value
$19.26
PnL
+$0.19
Record
38%
1162-1897 (3059)
Invested
$17.03
Value
$17.34
PnL
+$0.31
Record
37%
1136-1943 (3079)
Invested
$14.8
Value
$15.09
PnL
+$0.29
Record
37%
1136-1917 (3053)
Invested
$8
Value
$11.4
PnL
+$3.4
Record
38%
3735-6037 (9772)
Invested
$10.17
Value
$10.27
PnL
+$0.1
Record
40%
453-675 (1128)
Invested
$3.32
Value
$3.26
PnL
-$0.06
Record
37%
126-214 (340)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.