Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-11-07?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$436.36

Smart Money Entry

93.5¢ → 100¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,406

Combined PnL-$245.64

Yes4 traders

Total Value$120.84

Total Shares2,970

Combined PnL-$190.72

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Noavg 97.6¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$6.38	48% 1720-1837 (3557)
VE Venusian	Noavg 97.6¢	$170.66	$174.74	+$4.08	49% 1774-1854 (3628)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noavg 78.9¢	$379.92	$142.12	-$237.8	59% 33150-23318 (56468)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 20.2¢	$121.1	$75.41	-$45.69	51% 26884-25495 (52379)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 6.6¢	$180.1	$29.91	-$150.19	50% 28847-28660 (57507)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$10.12	$15.51	+$5.39	47% 9482-10610 (20092)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Noavg 55.2¢	$12.15	$6.49	-$5.66	84% 15040-2923 (17963)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$6.21	$6.32	+$0.12	50% 1794-1776 (3570)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.24	$0.01	-$0.23	53% 24137-21182 (45319)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,680.46

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$6.38

Record

48%

1720-1837 (3557)

Venusian

Invested

$170.66

Value

$174.74

PnL

+$4.08

Record

49%

1774-1854 (3628)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$379.92

Value

$142.12

PnL

-$237.8

Record

59%

33150-23318 (56468)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$121.1

Value

$75.41

PnL

-$45.69

Record

51%

26884-25495 (52379)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$180.1

Value

$29.91

PnL

-$150.19

Record

50%

28847-28660 (57507)

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.12

Value

$15.51

PnL

+$5.39

Record

47%

9482-10610 (20092)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

$12.15

Value

$6.49

PnL

-$5.66

Record

84%

15040-2923 (17963)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$6.21

Value

$6.32

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

1794-1776 (3570)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.23

Record

53%

24137-21182 (45319)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.