Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Albirex Niigata vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki: O/U 3.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $583 held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$583.18

Combined PnL

$14.5

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$243.33

Total Shares412

Combined PnL+$7.17

Over4 traders

Total Value$155.01

Total Shares209

Combined PnL+$7.33

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 72¢	$263.28	$184.84	-$78.44	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
└ Under leg	Underavg 72¢	$232.26	$133.95	-$98.31
└ Over leg	Overavg 35.7¢	$31.02	$50.9	+$19.87
RN1CTR	Underavg 48¢	$84.48	$128.48	+$44	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 53.8¢	$72.68	$76.56	+$3.88	54% 2027-1761 (3788)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 91.8¢	$65.98	$71.84	+$5.87	38% 128-208 (336)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Overavg 99¢	$61.46	$61.77	+$0.31	98% 429-7 (436)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 74¢	$63.5	$37.99	-$2.51	53% 1232-1075 (2307)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 27¢	$18.9	$18.9	+$0	56% 434-347 (781)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 27¢	$1.35	$2.5	+$1.15	48% 1953-2074 (4027)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 3.8¢	$0.51	$0.27	-$0.25	37% 909-1532 (2441)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 70.9¢	$37.98	$0.03	-$37.95	45% 2420-2899 (5319)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$263.28

Value

$184.84

PnL

-$78.44

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

Both legs:

Under$232.2672¢-$98.31

Over$31.0235.7¢+$19.87

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$84.48

Value

$128.48

PnL

+$44

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$72.68

Value

$76.56

PnL

+$3.88

Record

54%

2027-1761 (3788)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$65.98

Value

$71.84

PnL

+$5.87

Record

38%

128-208 (336)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Over

Invested

$61.46

Value

$61.77

PnL

+$0.31

Record

98%

429-7 (436)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$63.5

Value

$37.99

PnL

-$2.51

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$18.9

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

434-347 (781)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$1.35

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$1.15

Record

48%

1953-2074 (4027)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.25

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37.98

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$37.95

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.