M25 Montreal: Cannon Kingsley vs Jannik Opitz

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Cannon Kingsley (53%) · Cannon Kingsley at 59¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 20

Cannon Kingsley59¢Jannik Opitz41¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cannon Kingsley

Consensus Traders

Cannon Kingsley 53%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$369.72

Smart Money Entry

61.2¢ → 58.5¢

-4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralCannon Kingsley at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cannon Kingsley

9 of 17 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Cannon Kingsley59%

Jannik Opitz42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cannon Kingsley9 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares6,638

Combined PnL+$704.42

Jannik Opitz8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,532

Combined PnL-$334.7

Cannon Kingsley — 53%Jannik Opitz — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Cannon Kingsley. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cannon Kingsley) and the top 1000 (15 on Jannik Opitz) disagree here.

ctrJannik Opitz 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedCannon Kingsley 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jannik Opitz 60% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
12xmrbolt	Cannon Kingsleyavg 65.3¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	-$287.68	15% 8-45 (53)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Jannik Opitzavg 44.9¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$368.02	48% 425-457 (882)
01 01258787xy48487484545122	Cannon Kingsleyavg 52¢	$4.5K	$1.2K	+$922.81	67% 170-84 (254)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Jannik Opitzavg 44.8¢	$1.2K	$905	+$32.42	53% 634-568 (1202)
└ Jannik Opitz leg	Jannik Opitzavg 44.8¢	$695	$550.25	-$144.75
└ Cannon Kingsley leg	Cannon Kingsleyavg 50¢	$275	$354.75	+$177.17
CI cigarettes	Cannon Kingsleyavg 65.2¢	$923.39	$855.34	+$7.24	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
poshposhARB<$100	Jannik Opitzavg 49.4¢	$815.12	$786.47	-$28.65	47% 786-902 (1688)
└ Cannon Kingsley leg	Cannon Kingsleyavg 52.4¢	$373.65	$420.35	+$46.7
└ Jannik Opitz leg	Jannik Opitzavg 49.4¢	$441.47	$366.12	-$75.35
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Cannon Kingsleyavg 46.8¢	$210.8	$267.89	+$57.09	33% 224-465 (689)
RN1	Cannon Kingsleyavg 71¢	$179.61	$166.96	-$12.65	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
US User7429<$100	Cannon Kingsleyavg 75¢	$71.68	$86.52	+$14.84	36% 252-442 (694)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Jannik Opitzavg 29¢	$73.36	$86.01	+$12.65	44% 392-498 (890)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Jannik Opitzavg 21¢	$52.76	$85.42	+$32.66	50% 2262-2219 (4481)
dips.ARB<$100	Jannik Opitzavg 58¢	$99.72	$70.06	-$29.66	46% 741-865 (1606)
└ Jannik Opitz leg	Jannik Opitzavg 58¢	$63.22	$37.06	-$26.16
└ Cannon Kingsley leg	Cannon Kingsleyavg 73¢	$36.5	$33	-$3.5
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Cannon Kingsleyavg 65.9¢	$65.19	$65.33	+$0.14	36% 432-771 (1203)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Jannik Opitzavg 54¢	$77.35	$63.54	-$13.81	45% 595-734 (1329)
SM smithagent<$100	Cannon Kingsleyavg 72.1¢	$37.38	$22.93	-$8.07	43% 507-662 (1169)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Jannik Opitzavg 31.3¢	$7.4	$8.04	+$0.64	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Jannik Opitzavg 33.5¢	$3.35	$3.4	+$0.05	43% 809-1065 (1874)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Cannon Kingsleyavg 37¢	$72.12	$2.7	+$10.7	32% 291-613 (904)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Jannik Opitzavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.78	+$0.17	43% 312-419 (731)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Jannik Opitzavg 15¢	$0.75	$1.7	+$0.95	44% 112-144 (256)

12xmrbolt

Cannon Kingsley

Invested

$2,534.85

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$287.68

Record

15%

8-45 (53)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$1,798.75

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$368.02

Record

48%

425-457 (882)

01258787xy48487484545122

Cannon Kingsley

Invested

$4,486.41

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$922.81

Record

67%

170-84 (254)

NotJumpARB<$100

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$1,220

Value

$905

PnL

+$32.42

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

Both legs:

Jannik Opitz$69544.8¢-$144.75

Cannon Kingsley$27550¢+$177.17

cigarettes

Cannon Kingsley

Invested

$923.39

Value

$855.34

PnL

+$7.24

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

poshposhARB<$100

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$815.12

Value

$786.47

PnL

-$28.65

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

Both legs:

Cannon Kingsley$373.6552.4¢+$46.7

Jannik Opitz$441.4749.4¢-$75.35

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Cannon Kingsley

Invested

$210.8

Value

$267.89

PnL

+$57.09

Record

33%

224-465 (689)

RN1

Cannon Kingsley

Invested

$179.61

Value

$166.96

PnL

-$12.65

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

User7429<$100

Cannon Kingsley

Invested

$71.68

Value

$86.52

PnL

+$14.84

Record

36%

252-442 (694)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$73.36

Value

$86.01

PnL

+$12.65

Record

44%

392-498 (890)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$52.76

Value

$85.42

PnL

+$32.66

Record

50%

2262-2219 (4481)

dips.ARB<$100

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$99.72

Value

$70.06

PnL

-$29.66

Record

46%

741-865 (1606)

Both legs:

Jannik Opitz$63.2258¢-$26.16

Cannon Kingsley$36.573¢-$3.5

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Cannon Kingsley

Invested

$65.19

Value

$65.33

PnL

+$0.14

Record

36%

432-771 (1203)

lryyyCTR<$100

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$77.35

Value

$63.54

PnL

-$13.81

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

smithagent<$100

Cannon Kingsley

Invested

$37.38

Value

$22.93

PnL

-$8.07

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$7.4

Value

$8.04

PnL

+$0.64

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

sentrioCTR<$100

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

43%

809-1065 (1874)

SlickRick123<$100

Cannon Kingsley

Invested

$72.12

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$10.7

Record

32%

291-613 (904)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$0.17

Record

43%

312-419 (731)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Jannik Opitz

Invested

$0.75

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.95

Record

44%

112-144 (256)

Research grade

NeutralCannon Kingsley at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Cannon Kingsley

9 of 17 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Cannon Kingsley. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cannon Kingsley) and the top 1000 (15 on Jannik Opitz) disagree here.

ctrJannik Opitz 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedCannon Kingsley 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jannik Opitz 60% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cannon Kingsley wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.