M15 Maanshan: Millen Hurrion vs Rigele Te

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Rigele Te (56%) · Rigele Te at 95¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Millen Hurrion5¢Rigele Te95¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rigele Te

Consensus Traders

Rigele Te 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$107.2

Smart Money Entry

70.5¢ → 94.8¢

+34% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralRigele Te at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rigele Te

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Millen Hurrion5%

Rigele Te95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rigele Te5 traders

Total Value$758.89

Total Shares922

Combined PnL+$107.64

Millen Hurrion4 traders

Total Value$67.97

Total Shares139

Combined PnL-$0.43

Rigele Te — 56%Millen Hurrion — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Rigele Teavg 77.8¢	$470.19	$564.42	+$94.24	48% 62067-66946 (129013)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Millen Hurrionavg 49.4¢	$260.31	$274.58	+$14.27	51% 26809-25398 (52207)
└ Rigele Te leg	Rigele Teavg 39¢	$101.02	$195.56	+$94.54
└ Millen Hurrion leg	Millen Hurrionavg 49.4¢	$159.29	$79.02	-$80.28
RN1	Rigele Teavg 48¢	$117.12	$124.44	+$7.32	53% 61999-54294 (116293)
CI cigarettes<$100	Rigele Teavg 85¢	$50.16	$55.44	+$5.28	53% 24131-21178 (45309)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Millen Hurrionavg 49.2¢	$26.77	$26.63	-$0.13	50% 21484-21745 (43229)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Millen Hurrionavg 49.7¢	$20.55	$20.27	-$0.07	50% 26276-25912 (52188)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Millen Hurrionavg 49¢	$12.25	$12.25	+$0	54% 10172-8548 (18720)
LR lryyy<$100	Rigele Teavg 84¢	$9.24	$9.85	+$0.61	47% 9480-10607 (20087)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Millen Hurrionavg 50.2¢	$9.04	$8.82	-$0.22	49% 1764-1829 (3593)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Rigele Teavg 91¢	$4.55	$4.74	+$0.19	34% 19523-37138 (56661)

38791873984189

Rigele Te

Invested

$470.19

Value

$564.42

PnL

+$94.24

Record

48%

62067-66946 (129013)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Millen Hurrion

Invested

$260.31

Value

$274.58

PnL

+$14.27

Record

51%

26809-25398 (52207)

Both legs:

Rigele Te$101.0239¢+$94.54

Millen Hurrion$159.2949.4¢-$80.28

RN1

Rigele Te

Invested

$117.12

Value

$124.44

PnL

+$7.32

Record

53%

61999-54294 (116293)

cigarettes<$100

Rigele Te

Invested

$50.16

Value

$55.44

PnL

+$5.28

Record

53%

24131-21178 (45309)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Millen Hurrion

Invested

$26.77

Value

$26.63

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

21484-21745 (43229)

sentrioCTR<$100

Millen Hurrion

Invested

$20.55

Value

$20.27

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

26276-25912 (52188)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Millen Hurrion

Invested

$12.25

Value

$12.25

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

10172-8548 (18720)

lryyy<$100

Rigele Te

Invested

$9.24

Value

$9.85

PnL

+$0.61

Record

47%

9480-10607 (20087)

VenusianCTR<$100

Millen Hurrion

Invested

$9.04

Value

$8.82

PnL

-$0.22

Record

49%

1764-1829 (3593)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Rigele Te

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.74

PnL

+$0.19

Record

34%

19523-37138 (56661)

Research grade

NeutralRigele Te at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rigele Te

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rigele Te wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.0%

94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.