M15 Heraklion: Robert Guna vs Lars Wagenaar
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Robert Guna (83%) · Robert Guna at 100¢ · $703 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Robert Guna
6
Robert Guna 83%
$703.16
$166.57
67.4¢ → 100¢
+48% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralRobert Guna at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Robert Guna. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Robert Gunaavg 49.8¢ | $221.37 | $422.18 | +$200.81 | 28% 151-391 (542) |
38 38791873984189 | Robert Gunaavg 98.7¢ | $217.89 | $163.58 | -$40.84 | 48% 1273-1369 (2642) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Robert Gunaavg 92¢ | $75.27 | $86.21 | +$10.95 | 53% 5656-5081 (10737) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Robert Gunaavg 99.9¢ | $23.75 | $23.76 | +$0.01 | 41% 3115-4481 (7596) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Robert Gunaavg 85¢ | $5.67 | $6.66 | +$0.99 | 51% 1818-1777 (3595) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Lars Wagenaaravg 30¢ | $6.11 | $0.77 | -$5.34 | 23% 103-344 (447) |
Invested
$221.37
Value
$422.18
PnL
+$200.81
Record
28%
151-391 (542)
Invested
$217.89
Value
$163.58
PnL
-$40.84
Record
48%
1273-1369 (2642)
Invested
$75.27
Value
$86.21
PnL
+$10.95
Record
53%
5656-5081 (10737)
Invested
$23.75
Value
$23.76
PnL
+$0.01
Record
41%
3115-4481 (7596)
Invested
$5.67
Value
$6.66
PnL
+$0.99
Record
51%
1818-1777 (3595)
Invested
$6.11
Value
$0.77
PnL
-$5.34
Record
23%
103-344 (447)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.