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5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 45%
$1.8K
$57.33
91.6¢ → 94.3¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA pagliacci4 | Noavg 93.2¢ | $832.45 | $842.9 | +$10.46 | 60% 49-32 (81) |
 xxNyx | Noavg 94¢ | $321.02 | $319.45 | -$1.57 | — 3-2 (5) |
 dips. | Noavg 84.6¢ | $250.4 | $276.68 | +$26.27 | 46% 741-865 (1606) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 90.2¢ | $341.48 | $209.98 | +$8.38 | 31% 114-255 (369) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 6.9¢ | $137.31 | $65.75 | +$11.05 | 39% 3489-5413 (8902) |
 BlondBeast<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $37.59 | $37.39 | -$0.2 | — 2-5 (7) |
HU hugecaulkCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.4¢ | $43.9 | $26.47 | +$8.82 | 19% 5-22 (27) |
 WarriorPoohCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $19.44 | $12.65 | -$6.79 | — 4-3 (7) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $3.5 | $7.54 | +$4.04 | 13% 65-441 (506) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $6 | $3.53 | -$2.47 | 40% 10-15 (25) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $3.6 | $2.93 | -$0.67 | 41% 27-39 (66) |
Invested
$832.45
Value
$842.9
PnL
+$10.46
Record
60%
49-32 (81)
xxNyxInvested
$321.02
Value
$319.45
PnL
-$1.57
Record
—
3-2 (5)
dips.Invested
$250.4
Value
$276.68
PnL
+$26.27
Record
46%
741-865 (1606)
HaradwaithInvested
$341.48
Value
$209.98
PnL
+$8.38
Record
31%
114-255 (369)
Invested
$137.31
Value
$65.75
PnL
+$11.05
Record
39%
3489-5413 (8902)
BlondBeast<$100Invested
$37.59
Value
$37.39
PnL
-$0.2
Record
—
2-5 (7)
Invested
$43.9
Value
$26.47
PnL
+$8.82
Record
19%
5-22 (27)
WarriorPoohCTR<$100Invested
$19.44
Value
$12.65
PnL
-$6.79
Record
—
4-3 (7)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
$7.54
PnL
+$4.04
Record
13%
65-441 (506)
Invested
$6
Value
$3.53
PnL
-$2.47
Record
40%
10-15 (25)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$2.93
PnL
-$0.67
Record
41%
27-39 (66)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.